HODL Waves
Bitcoin supply composition by holder age - percentage view reveals cohort migration and cycle psychology.
What is it?
HODL Waves decompose the entire circulating supply of Bitcoin into age bands based on the time elapsed since each UTXO was last moved. Each band represents a cohort: coins moved less than a day ago, 1-7 days, 1-3 months, and so on up to 10+ years. Stacking these bands creates an area chart showing how supply composition shifts over time. The original UTXO age distribution concept was created by John W. Ratcliff in 2014 (Bitcointalk), then popularised under the name 'HODL Waves' by Unchained Capital in 2018.
How to read
Hot bands (short holding time) widen when many old coins are spent - a sign of increased activity. Cold bands (long holding time) widen when holders keep their coins without moving them. Focus on the relative thickness of bands rather than absolute levels. A sudden swelling of short bands (< 3 months) after prolonged expansion of long bands has historically coincided with distribution phases.
Key zones
Bands > 1 year historically represent supply held by long-term participants. When they collectively exceed 65% of total supply, this has been associated with advanced accumulation phases in past cycles. Conversely, when < 3-month bands dominate (> 40%), this has coincided with periods of heightened speculative activity.
What to observe
Watch the 'wave' propagating from hot to cold bands: when many coins move from < 1 month to 1-3 months then 3-6 months, it indicates a supply maturation process. Look for moments when the oldest bands (5 years+) start narrowing - this means very old coins are re-entering circulation. The speed of migration between bands is as informative as the absolute levels.
Historical context
At the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle peaks, hot bands (< 6 months) widened significantly as long-term holders reduced their positions. At the 2015, 2018, and 2022 troughs, cold bands (> 1 year) reached record proportions, often exceeding 65% of supply. The 2024 halving showed an unusual structure with intermediate bands (6-12 months) thicker than in previous cycles at a comparable stage.
Expert notes
The 8+ band granularity available via direct blockchain analysis is significantly superior to the 3-4 band versions on most free platforms. For advanced analysis, compare band migration speed with the RHODL Ratio - when the two diverge, it may indicate a structural anomaly (e.g. institutional movements or exchange migrations). HODL Waves do not distinguish internal transfers by the same holder from genuine changes of hands.
Common mistakes to avoid
Common mistake: concluding that widening cold bands automatically means 'bullish accumulation.' Coins may be immobile for many reasons: lost keys, forgotten coins, passive institutional custody. Similarly, widening hot bands does not necessarily mean 'panic selling' - it may reflect new adoption with coins that simply have not matured yet.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/hodl-waves/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "hodl-waves",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.