Bottom Models Overlay
Stacks BTC price against two classic cycle-bottom valuation models - Realized Price and Delta Price. A multi-line wrapper to read distance versus historical floors.
What is it?
Bottom Models Overlay is a multi-line wrapper stacking on a single chart the BTC price and two independent cycle-bottom models: (1) Realized Price = realized cap / supply, aggregate market cost basis; (2) Delta Price = (realized cap - average cap) / supply, absolute floor calibrated on historical bottoms. Combined read to situate the current price against industry-convention floors.
How to read
Read the BTC price distance vs each model: when price approaches Realized Price, the aggregate market is near break-even - typical capitulation zone. When price touches Delta Price (lower model), this is historically the absolute cycle bottom. The two models frame the deep capitulation zone with good reliability.
Key zones
Price zone > Realized Price: aggregate market in unrealized profit (typical bull to neutral). Price zone ≈ Realized Price: aggregate break-even, market under stress. Price zone < Realized Price: aggregate market in unrealized loss (typical deep bear). Price zone < Delta Price: extreme historical bottom zone - structural cycle bottom.
What to observe
Watch the price touch and bounce off Realized Price - often the initial capitulation marker in bear markets. Watch the approach to Delta Price - historically, price rarely touches this floor, and when it does, the bottom is generally reached within a few weeks.
Historical context
The two models have historically marked major BTC cycle bottoms with great reliability. Realized Price is touched every bear cycle; Delta Price has been touched at the deepest bottoms. The models rely on aggregate cost basis and average market cap - structural metrics little sensitive to short-term sentiment.
Expert notes
The overlay is a visual wrapper - each individual model is available in its dedicated chart with detailed analysis. Use for macro cycle reading. Models self-recalibrate with new on-chain data, making the absolute read less relevant than the read relative to current price.
Common mistakes to avoid
Reaching a floor model is NOT a guarantee of a bottom - it is a probabilistic indicator based on past cycles. Price can break these floors temporarily before bouncing (technical overshoot). Always cross-reference with sentiment indicators (Fear & Greed, NUPL) to confirm.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/bottom-models-overlay/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "bottom-models-overlay",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.