AVIV Momentum
AVIV Ratio minus its 365-day exponential moving average. Measures deviation from the long-term trend - a cyclical accumulation / distribution oscillator.
What is it?
AVIV momentum = current AVIV ratio (Market Cap / Active Cap) minus its 365-day exponential moving average. Formula: M = AVIV - EMA₃₆₅(AVIV). The subtraction isolates short/medium-term deviation from the smooth long-term trajectory. The EMA choice (rather than simple average) gives more weight to recent values, making the reading reactive to inflections without sacrificing annual-anchor stability.
How to read
Y-axis centered on zero - the horizontal line y=0 materializes the equilibrium between current value and annual trend. Positive momentum: AVIV ratio is above its smoothed trend, active bullish dynamic. Negative momentum: ratio is below, active bearish dynamic. ±1σ bands (historical of momentum itself) delimit normal oscillations from extremes.
Key zones
Above +1σ historical: marked bullish deviation, strong dynamic indication. Below -1σ historical: marked bearish deviation. Zero crossing: momentum regime inversion, key moment to identify trend shifts. Zone [-1σ, +1σ]: normal oscillation around smooth trend.
What to observe
Observe classical momentum/price divergences: a BTC price reaching new highs while AVIV momentum plateaus or decays marks structural rally fatigue. Conversely, a price retouching a floor while momentum recovers from a negative extreme marks floor construction. Fast zero crossings (±1σ → 0 → ∓1σ passage in a few weeks) mark clean-cut shifts.
Historical context
AVIV momentum captured major divergences of recent cycles: 2017 bull top with clean momentum/price divergence at rally end, 2018 bear bottom with momentum recovery before price, March 2020 COVID capitulation (fast negative extreme), 2021 post-halving bull peak with momentum exhaustion, November 2022 FTX capitulation (deep negative extreme), January 2024 ETF recovery with momentum acceleration.
Expert notes
The 365-day EMA window is chosen for its correspondence with the annual cycle without sticking to the macro horizon of the complete 4-year cycle. It offers long-term anchoring while remaining reactive - more reactive than an equivalent SMA thanks to exponential weighting. Complementary to batch gradients (which measure relative speed): momentum measures absolute deviation from trend, gradients measure the slope of the trend itself.
Common mistakes to avoid
AVIV momentum is not a bounded oscillator like the RSI - it has no absolute ceiling or floor. Extremes are measured statistically via ±σ bands, not via fixed values. Do not confuse with classical price momentum: AVIV momentum measures deviation of an internal composition ratio, not price itself. An exploding price can coexist with stable AVIV momentum if Active/Vaulted composition evolves harmoniously.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/aviv-momentum/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "aviv-momentum",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.