AVIV Z-Score
Rolling 2-year Z-score of the AVIV Ratio. Quantifies how extreme the current Active-vs-Vaulted valuation is relative to its own multi-cycle distribution.
What is it?
The AVIV Z-score measures how many standard deviations separate the current AVIV ratio (Market Cap / Active Cap) from its 2-year (730-day) rolling mean. Formula: Z = (AVIV − mean₇₃₀(AVIV)) / std₇₃₀(AVIV). The denominator (2-year rolling standard deviation) normalizes the reading across cycle regimes: a Z-score of +2 means the ratio is two standard deviations above its recent trajectory, a Z-score of −2 two standard deviations below. This transformation makes extremes comparable across different cycles without depending on the absolute ratio value.
How to read
Read the Y-axis centered on zero. Horizontal bands at ±1σ (yellow), ±2σ (red), and ±3σ (dark red) materialize standard statistical thresholds. A Z-score above +2σ marks relative overheating on the 2-year horizon — Active Cap abnormally dominates Vaulted Cap. Below −2σ, relative undervaluation: Vaulted Cap dominates, a sign of dormant accumulation. Zero crossings mark regime inversions. The BTC price overlay toggle confronts statistical extremes with actual price reversals.
Key zones
Beyond ±3σ: statistically rare events (<0.3% of observations under normal distribution), historically associated with major peaks and capitulations. Zone ±2σ to ±3σ: marked overheating or undervaluation, consistent with cycle tops and bottoms. Zone ±1σ to ±2σ: normal deviation, marking inflection rather than extreme. Central zone ±1σ: neutral regime, no exploitable inefficiency.
What to observe
Observe three patterns: (1) divergence between Z-score and BTC price — rising price with falling Z-score marks underlying distribution; (2) zero crossings after prolonged stays in extreme zones — confirmed regime inversion; (3) convergence toward zero from ±2σ without reaching ±3σ — exhaustion reading without full capitulation.
Historical context
The AVIV ratio itself exists since Active-Cap and Vaulted-Cap data became statistically meaningful (around 2013, when LTH cohort base reaches significance). Successive halvings (July 2016, May 2020, April 2024), the COVID crash (March 2020), the FTX capitulation (November 2022), and spot-ETF approval (January 2024) each imprinted characteristic signatures on the Z-score — extremes synchronized with major price reversals.
Expert notes
The 730-day (2-year) rolling window is the institutional convention for capturing a full cycle without excessive inertia. A shorter window (365 days) would overreact to tactical shocks; a longer one (1460 days) would smooth reversals. The AVIV Z-score tends to slightly lead the MVRV Z-score at inversions — it incorporates the Vaulted-Cap temporal component that MVRV ignores.
Common mistakes to avoid
The AVIV Z-score is not a price prediction, it is a statistical extremity measure on a relative horizon. Reaching +2σ does not guarantee an immediate reversal — markets can persist in extreme zones for several weeks. Do not confuse with the MVRV Z-score: AVIV incorporates temporal structure (Active vs Vaulted), MVRV measures realized-cap deviation without this decomposition. The two readings are complementary, not substitutable.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/aviv-ratio-zscore/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "aviv-ratio-zscore",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.