AVIV Gradient 90d
90-day normalized rate of change of the AVIV Ratio. Mid-term horizon for accumulation vs distribution regime identification.
What is it?
Normalized gradient of the AVIV ratio (Market Cap / Active Cap) on a 90-day rolling window. Formula: G₉₀ = Δ(mean₉₀(AVIV)) / mean₉₀(AVIV). The quarterly smoothing filters the tactical noise of the 30d gradient and exposes regime shifts on the seasonal scale - typically accumulation → distribution or distribution → accumulation transitions that structure the main cycle phases.
How to read
Y-axis centered on zero. Zero crossings mark structural shifts, rarer and more significant than on the 30d gradient. Empirical thresholds ±0.05 for this wider window. Persistent positive gradient: structural distribution regime (Active Cap grows relative to Vaulted Cap over the quarter). Persistent negative gradient: structural accumulation regime.
Key zones
Above +0.05: marked structural distribution, consistent with bull-market ends or major rally exhaustion. Below -0.05: marked structural accumulation, historically present during consolidated bear markets. Zone [-0.05, +0.05]: consolidation without clear trend.
What to observe
90d gradient zero crossings are macro events - often preceded by the 30d gradient but confirmed here. Observe convergence of the two readings: when 30d and 90d gradients cross zero in the same direction on a short window, the structural shift is validated. 30d/90d divergences mark tactical exhaustion without macro shift.
Historical context
Across successive post-halving cycles (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024), the AVIV 90d gradient crossed zero upward 3-6 months before bull-market tops and downward 3-6 months before bear-market bottoms. The consistent lag suggests structural predictive power on the quarterly horizon.
Expert notes
The 90-day window conventionally matches a financial quarter - it captures an institutional-allocation publication cycle and aligns with the typical portfolio-rotation horizon of sophisticated actors. Combined with 30d and 180d gradients, it forms a hierarchical triplet enabling multi-scale reading of the AVIV ratio.
Common mistakes to avoid
A positive 90d gradient does not mean accumulation has stopped - it indicates Active Cap grew relative to Vaulted Cap over the quarter. Both can grow in absolute value, with Active Cap faster. The gradient measures relative composition, not absolute in/out flow. Always cross-check with supply-distribution metrics to obtain absolute direction.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/aviv-gradient-90d/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "aviv-gradient-90d",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.