AVIV Z-Score LTH
Rolling 2-year Z-score of an LTH-cohort recompute of the AVIV Ratio. Isolates conviction-weighted reading by removing short-term holder noise.
What is it?
Variant of the AVIV Z-score computed via a Trinity recompute on the Long-Term Holder cohort. Formula: Z_LTH = (AVIV_LTH − mean(AVIV_LTH, 730 days)) / std(AVIV_LTH, 730 days), where AVIV_LTH = Realized Cap LTH / (Supply LTH × Spot Price) — a proxy of the Active/Vaulted ratio filtered on the mature cohort. The numerator captures aggregated cost basis of mature holders (LTH cohort beyond the industry-standard five-month threshold); the denominator captures their current market value. The ratio measures the relative gap between cost and value on this specific cohort, normalized by a 730-day rolling window. Filters Short-Term Holder volatility to retain only the macro-conviction reading.
How to read
Same grammar as the global AVIV Z-score but applied to a structurally less volatile sub-indicator. Extremes (±2σ, ±3σ) are rarer and more reliable, as the LTH cohort only moves during deep capitulations or cycle distributions. Zero-crossings = macro accumulation ↔ distribution switch among mature holders. The ±σ bands are tighter than on the global AVIV due to lower intrinsic volatility.
Key zones
Above +2σ: marked LTH distribution, historically coinciding with terminal phases of bull markets. Below −2σ: deep LTH accumulation, historically marked at cycle bottoms where strong hands absorb capitulated supply. Central zone [−1σ, +1σ] represents the stable-conviction regime — no actionable indication.
What to observe
Divergences with the global AVIV Z-score are the most informative: when the global AVIV marks overheating but the LTH Z-score stays neutral, the move is carried by STHs (often fragile). Conversely, when the LTH Z-score reaches an extreme before the global AVIV, the reading is more reliable because the slow cohort rarely moves.
Historical context
The industry-standard LTH threshold (about five months) follows the on-chain literature convention for separating tactical and strategic holders — it approximately corresponds to the duration beyond which the probability of selling drops significantly per lifespan studies. Major inflections in the AVIV LTH Z-score have historically preceded peaks and bottoms of the post-halving cycles of 2016, 2020, and 2024.
Expert notes
The AVIV LTH Z-score is classified as Performance tier because it requires an additional cohort decomposition beyond the raw AVIV ratio — Trinity computes it via an Option γ recompute: Realized Cap LTH / (Supply LTH × Spot Price), a weighting functionally equivalent to an AVIV filtered on the mature cohort. Accuracy depends on LTH decomposition quality in source series and the conventional LTH cohort threshold used as industry convention.
Common mistakes to avoid
Do not interpret a neutral LTH Z-score as absence of market movement — STHs can move price without mature holders budging. Conversely, an extreme LTH Z-score in a quiet market is a powerful indication that strong hands are silently repositioning. The 155-day threshold is a convention, not a natural boundary — a few UTXOs aged 150-160 days oscillate between cohorts.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/aviv-lth-zscore/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "aviv-lth-zscore",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.