AVIV Gradient 360d
360-day normalized rate of change of the AVIV Ratio. Macro cycle-scale derivative - slowest AVIV reading, tracks multi-year regime changes.
What is it?
Normalized gradient of the AVIV ratio (Market Cap / Active Cap) on a 360-day rolling window. Formula: G₃₆₀ = Δ(mean₃₆₀(AVIV)) / mean₃₆₀(AVIV). The annual scale absorbs all seasonal and quarterly oscillations, leaving only complete-cycle dynamics visible. Over 4-year post-halving cycles, the curve typically draws a slow sinusoid with one structural peak and one structural trough per cycle.
How to read
Y-axis centered on zero. Crossings are extremely rare - at most two per 4-year cycle. Empirical thresholds ±0.20 for this annual window. The reading reads as a cycle clock: local extrema of the 360d gradient lead corresponding BTC price extrema by 3 to 9 months. Maximum positive gradient in mid-to-terminal phases of bull markets; minimum negative gradient in mid-to-terminal phases of bear markets.
Key zones
Above +0.20: advanced macro distribution, terminal bull-market phase statistically probable. Below -0.20: advanced macro accumulation, terminal bear-market phase statistically probable. Zone [-0.20, +0.20]: mid-cycle without imminent macro reversal indication.
What to observe
Observe relative position in the cycle sinusoid: when the 360d gradient exits an extreme zone and crosses back through ±0.20 toward zero, the corresponding phase (distribution or accumulation) is nearing its end. The derivative of the 360d gradient (not rendered directly, to derive visually) indicates inflection - a gradient decreasing in positive zone marks distribution slowdown before zero crossing.
Historical context
Across complete cycles 2012-2016, 2016-2020, 2020-2024, the AVIV 360d gradient drew a consistent signature: structural peak around +0.25/+0.30 in the 3 to 9 months preceding macro tops, then decay toward zero typically crossed 6 to 12 months after the top. Inverse symmetry occurs at bottoms. The post-2024 cycle (ETF-era) preserves this structure but with slightly reduced amplitude due to increased institutional liquidity.
Expert notes
The 360-day window equals one quarter of a post-halving cycle (4 years = 1460 days). It captures phase dynamics without contamination from preceding cycles. Combined with the batch's 30d, 90d, and 180d gradients, it completes multi-scale reading of the AVIV ratio across four hierarchical horizons - tactical, quarterly, semi-annual, annual. Performance tier reflects macro non-actionable horizon in short-term trading.
Common mistakes to avoid
The 360d gradient does not predict the precise timing of tops or bottoms - it indicates the cycle zone the market occupies with 3 to 9 months of precision. Do not use this reading to time tactical entries or exits. Reading requires a macro view: each point of the curve integrates 360 days of data, fast movements are invisible by construction.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/aviv-gradient-360d/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "aviv-gradient-360d",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.