AVIV Gradient 180d
180-day normalized rate of change of the AVIV Ratio. Captures cycle-scale shifts between hoarding and distribution phases.
What is it?
Normalized gradient of the AVIV ratio (Market Cap / Active Cap) on a 180-day rolling window. Formula: G₁₈₀ = Δ(mean₁₈₀(AVIV)) / mean₁₈₀(AVIV). The semi-annual smoothing eliminates seasonal fluctuations and exposes transitions between main cycle phases - typically bull → bear or bear → bull passage on the macro scale.
How to read
Y-axis centered on zero. Crossings are rare - typically one or two per complete 4-year cycle. Empirical thresholds ±0.10 for this wide window. Sustained positive gradient above +0.10: macro distribution regime in place. Sustained negative gradient below -0.10: macro accumulation regime in place.
Key zones
Above +0.10: confirmed macro distribution, consistent with second halves of bull markets. Below -0.10: confirmed macro accumulation, consistent with deep bear markets. Zone [-0.10, +0.10]: macro transition or consolidation regime.
What to observe
Absolute position matters less than zero crossings - rare events marking the macro pivot. Observe the distance between a local extreme (±0.10 or beyond) and the next zero: the shorter the distance, the more intense and brief the regime. A BTC price / 180d gradient divergence (price rising while gradient falls) marks a bull-phase end often on a 6-12 month horizon.
Historical context
Across the four post-halving cycles (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024), the AVIV 180d gradient crossed zero downward approximately 6 to 9 months after each bull-market top, and upward approximately 6 to 9 months after each bear-market bottom. The reading is structural and consistent across liquidity regimes (pre-ETF, post-ETF).
Expert notes
The 180-day window is conventional in cyclical analysis - it captures two quarters, sufficient to smooth seasonal distortions while remaining reactive to macro shifts. Performance-tier classification reflects advanced usage: the 180d gradient is often cross-referenced with external macro metrics (DXY liquidity, ETF flows, funding rates) in institutional workflows.
Common mistakes to avoid
The 180d gradient does not replace price analysis - it is an indication of internal market composition. A negative 180d gradient during a bear-market bottom is not a sell indication: it is precisely the expected signature of macro accumulation. Do not use the 180d reading to time short-term trades - its relevance horizon is at minimum semi-annual.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/aviv-gradient-180d/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "aviv-gradient-180d",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.