Pi Cycle Pre-Alerts Bands
Public-domain Pi Cycle Top extension with anticipated cycle top detection. The chart overlays SMA(111), 2×SMA(350) cross threshold, and a pre-alert lower threshold at 0.9 × 2×SMA(350) on Bitcoin spot price. When the SMA(111) enters the pre-alert band (90% to 100% of the cross threshold), the chart enters a warming state historically aligned with the 2 to 8 weeks preceding the confirmed cross. When SMA(111) crosses above 2×SMA(350), the confirmed regime activates - historically aligned with cycle peaks (3/3 verified 2013 / 2017 / 2021).
What is it?
The chart compares the 111-day SMA with two moving thresholds: 0.9 × 2×SMA(350) and 2×SMA(350). A permanent band between these thresholds provides a visual reference. The position of the 111-day SMA defines the neutral reading, pre-alert or upper-threshold exceedance; the band's color does not change with that state. An exceedance alone does not establish a price peak.
How to read
Three lines are plotted: the 111-day SMA in gold, 2×SMA(350) in burgundy and 0.9 × 2×SMA(350) in orange. The permanent band between the two thresholds is a translucent red fill with constant 0.20 opacity in the dark theme, slightly increased in the light theme for readability. It remains visible when the 111-day SMA is below, inside or above the band. Pre-alert is read from the gold line's position between the thresholds, without the fill appearing or intensifying at a cross. Historical markers are references, not forecasts.
Key zones
Below the band: SMA(111) < 0.9 × 2×SMA(350), neutral reading. Inside the band: SMA(111) between the thresholds, pre-alert reading. Above the band: SMA(111) > 2×SMA(350), upper-threshold exceedance. In all three cases, the same permanent band remains filled at constant opacity; regimes differ through the SMA's position, not through the color.
What to observe
• Observe the 111-day SMA entering the band and its distance from the upper threshold. • An exit through the lower edge can occur without an upper-threshold exceedance. • After a cross, follow the SMA's position relative to the thresholds. • The permanent fill is a comparison reference; its presence alone describes no state.
Historical context
Pi Cycle crosses are studied notably around the December 2013, December 2017 and April 2021 peaks. These historical occurrences guarantee neither repetition nor a fixed delay to a peak. The November 2021 peak illustrates the limits of a reading based solely on this cross. The cycle beginning with the 2024 halving belongs to a market context that includes spot ETFs.
Expert notes
The public framework uses two simple moving averages of daily closing prices, over 111 and 350 days. The band's boundaries are 0.9 × 2×SMA(350) and 2×SMA(350). An exceedance is determined from the position of the 111-day SMA and, to date a cross, its position at the previous observation. The thresholds describe a relationship between averages, not a peak probability.
Common mistakes to avoid
• Confusing the permanent fill with entry into pre-alert: only the position of the 111-day SMA establishes that reading. • Expecting an opacity change at a cross: opacity is constant within a theme. • Interpreting a cross as certainty of a peak or an instruction to sell. • Forgetting the limitation of the 2021 double top: historical references are not forecasts.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/cycle-intelligence/metrics/cycle-pi-cycle-prealerts-bands/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "cycle-pi-cycle-prealerts-bands",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.