Multi-SMA Confluence Zones
Daily confluence score from 0 to 5 of five long simple moving averages of the BTC price (100, 200, 350, 500 and 730 days): each day, the algorithm counts the pairs of averages that sit within ±5% of each other, capped at 5. The score is drawn alone on the right axis, inside three bands (low, medium, high); SMA(350) and SMA(730) are drawn with the BTC price on the left logarithmic price axis. On the four cycles observed so far, eight of the nine occurrences of confluence_score ≥4 preceded a major pivot. Nine observations is a small record: one occurrence changing side moves the count by eleven points.
What is it?
The Multi-SMA Confluence score measures, each day, how tightly five long simple moving averages of the Bitcoin daily close are bunched together: SMA(100), SMA(200), SMA(350), SMA(500) and SMA(730). The algorithm looks at the ten possible pairs of these averages and counts the pairs whose two values sit within ±5% of each other (the gap is measured against the mean of the pair). The count is capped at 5, which gives a confluence_score from 0 to 5. A high score means that several horizons of the market (from about three months to two years) agree on almost the same price level. The chart draws that score, plus two of the five averages for price context: SMA(350), the Pi Cycle reference, and SMA(730), the two-year structural average. On the four cycles observed so far, eight of the nine occurrences of confluence_score≥4 preceded a major cycle pivot. Publication lag is daily T+0.
How to read
The chart has two axes. On the right axis, linear and bounded from 0 to 5, the score line is the confluence_score alone. It moves in steps (whole numbers), inside three colored bands: low confluence from 0 to 2, medium confluence (watch zone) from 2 to 3.5, high confluence from 3.5 to 5. The Zones button shows or hides these bands. On the left axis, logarithmic and in dollars, the BTC price line is drawn with SMA(350) and SMA(730), the 350-day and 730-day averages named in the legend: this axis shows where the price stands against the two long averages. The LOG button is not offered on this chart: the price axis is always logarithmic, and a score bounded from 0 to 5 is read on a linear scale. Labeled arrow markers place the halvings and the cycle tops and bottoms. The tooltip gives, for the hovered day, the exact score, the value of both averages and the BTC price.
Key zones
Low confluence (score 0 to 2, lower band): the averages are spread out, each horizon tells a different story about price. This is the default regime during strong trends. Medium confluence (score 2 to 3.5, middle band): several pairs of averages are converging. Watch zone: the market is compressing toward a common level. High confluence (score 3.5 to 5, upper band): most horizons agree on the same price level. Scores of 4 and 5 are rare. The April 2021 first top ($63,518) and the November 2021 ultimate top ($69,000) were both preceded by confluence_score≥4 within 30 days; so were the December 2018 bottom ($3,122) and the November 2022 bottom ($15,460). Top or bottom: the score itself does not say which. Read the left axis: the position of the BTC price against SMA(350) and SMA(730) (above both, between them, below both) gives the context in which the convergence happens.
What to observe
• Score escalation: watch the score line climb from 1 → 2 → 3 → 4 over a few weeks. Historically, the move to 4 or 5 came within 30 days of a major pivot. • Entry into the high band: a score crossing 3.5 is the rarest configuration of the framework; note the date and read the left axis at the same moment. • Price against the two averages: on the left axis, a price far above SMA(350) and SMA(730) during a high score is a different context from a price below both. The averages also act as visual support and resistance levels. • SMA(350) against SMA(730): when the two averages cross, the medium-long horizon and the two-year horizon change order, which often coincides with a rising score. • Post-ETF dynamic: monitor whether cycle 4 confluence episodes shift due to spot ETF flows since January 2024. Lower volatility may produce more frequent medium scores without a major pivot.
Historical context
The multi-MA confluence concept comes from a classic technical analysis observation: price zones where several moving averages converge act as structural support or resistance, because participants who use these averages as reference points reinforce the level collectively. Trinity's version replaces visual inspection with an automated daily count of converging pairs, published as a bounded score. The five averages (100/200/350/500/730 days) span the medium term to the two-year structural horizon, which covers a full Bitcoin cycle. The ±5% convergence window was calibrated empirically to balance sensitivity (too tight, no episodes) and specificity (too loose, noise). The record of confluence_score≥4 occurrences preceding major pivots was compiled across the four prior cycles: tops December 2013, December 2017, April 2021, November 2021; bottoms January 2015, December 2018, November 2022; with one false positive (the mid-2019 consolidation during the cycle 3 mid-cycle transition), which was structurally a non-pivot.
Expert notes
The confluence_score uses pairs of averages (not triples or quadruples) to stay sensitive without a combinatorial explosion: there are C(5, 2) = 10 possible pairs, and the score is capped at 5. The score is computed from all five averages, while the chart draws only SMA(350) and SMA(730) to keep the price axis readable; a high score can therefore come from pairs involving SMA(100), SMA(200) or SMA(500), which are not drawn. The averages are simple moving averages of the daily close; an exponential version would shift the timing of the episodes without changing the framework. The ±5% window is fixed. With four cycles behind it and eight matches out of nine, the record is encouraging and thin at the same time: treat the framework as an indication, never as a rule. Cycle 5 will add the fifth observation, and with it the first real test of the count.
Common mistakes to avoid
• Treating a high score alone as a pivot forecast: the score does not say whether the convergence happens near a top or a bottom. Read it together with the position of the price on the left axis. A score of 4 in a mid-range consolidation is not a major pivot indication. • Reading the two drawn averages as the whole score: the score counts pairs among five averages, three of which are not drawn. Two drawn lines far apart do not contradict a medium score. • Reading the score on a price scale: the right axis carries the score only, from 0 to 5; dollar values are read on the left axis. • Confusing the framework with Pi Cycle Highs & Lows: Pi Cycle uses a binary crossover of two averages. Multi-SMA Confluence counts converging pairs among five averages. They are complementary, not redundant. • Misreading the count: eight of nine refers to occurrences of confluence_score≥4 that preceded a major pivot within 30 days. It does NOT mean the framework catches eight pivots in nine; it may miss some. Use complementary indicators for cross-validation. • Forgetting the false positive: the mid-2019 consolidation produced a high score without a major pivot.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/cycle-intelligence/metrics/cycle-multi-sma-confluence-zones/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "cycle-multi-sma-confluence-zones",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.