Cost-Basis Cycle ThermometerTRINITY EXCLUSIVE

Trinity exclusive model

This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.

What is it?

The Cost-Basis Cycle Thermometer is a Trinity proprietary model that ranks, on a 0-100 scale, the Bitcoin spot price against the cost basis of the circulating supply. Each day's reading is the historical rank of the logarithm of the price-to-cost ratio: a reading close to 0 means the ratio sits near the lowest value observed so far, 100 means it is at the highest. A low reading therefore describes a cold market, with the ratio in the bottom of its observed history; a high reading describes a hot market, with the ratio in the top. The exact construction is not published. Past readings do not change when new data arrives.

How to read

Read a single oscillator line from 0 to 100, with three shaded regimes behind it. The Cold band (0-20, blue) marks the lowest fifth of the price-to-cost ratio's observed history; the Neutral band (20-80) is the broad mid-cycle middle; the Hot band (80-100, red) marks the highest fifth. The reading is a rank, not a price level: it orders the ratio against its own past, so a low rank does not by itself say anything about the price level against the cost basis. The Bitcoin spot price is overlaid as a white line on the right (logarithmic) axis so you can place each cold and hot passage in its market context. Read it as a temperature: the line dips into the Cold band as the ratio moves toward the bottom of its observed range, and pushes into the Hot band as it moves toward the top. Use the zones toggle to show or hide the cold/hot shading, and the BTC overlay toggle to compare the thermometer with price directly.

Key zones

Cold zone (0-20, blue): the price-to-cost ratio sits in the lowest fifth of its observed history. Historically the reading entered this band during deep cycle lows (early 2015, late 2018, late 2022), and one-year-forward outcomes from this band were historically strong. A low rank describes a historically cheap ratio, not an absolute price level against the cost basis. Neutral zone (20-80): the ratio sits within the broad middle of its own history. This is where the market spent most of its time between extremes. Neither extreme is active. Hot zone (80-100, red): the ratio sits in the highest fifth of its observed history. Historically the reading entered this band near cycle highs (late 2013, late 2017, the 2021 highs), and one-year-forward outcomes from this band were historically weak. A high rank describes a historically expensive ratio relative to the cost basis, not a fixed multiple of it.

What to observe

• The temperature at a glance: a single look at the oscillator line tells you whether the price-to-cost ratio sits near the bottom, the middle or the top of its observed history. • Direction of travel: a line rising out of the Cold band into Neutral describes a ratio moving up from the bottom of its history; a line pushing from Neutral into the Hot band describes one moving toward the top. • Cold and hot against the BTC overlay: line up each Cold passage with the white price line - historically these aligned with cycle lows - and each Hot passage with cycle highs. • Time spent in the extremes: the duration inside the Cold and Hot bands has varied by cycle. The duration is contextual, not predictive. • Cross-reference: read alongside the MVRV-based and Pi Cycle cycle charts.

Historical context

Cost-basis distributions - the spread of prices at which the circulating supply last moved - are a long-standing on-chain lens. Across the verified cycles (2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022), the reading entered its Cold band at every cycle low and its Hot band at every cycle high, with one-year-forward outcomes strong from Cold and weak from Hot. The post-2024 spot-ETF regime has compressed cycle amplitude, so future extremes may register at less extreme ranks than historically - the chart provides historical context, not future certainty.

Expert notes

⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - The Cost-Basis Cycle Thermometer is a proprietary Trinity Insights construction with no named industry equivalent. Historical readings are stable as new days are added (no repaint). A low rank is not an absolute price reading: the reading orders the price-to-cost ratio inside its own history, so the same rank corresponds to very different price-to-cost multiples across cycles. The 0-20 / 80-100 cold/hot thresholds are empirical, a balance of sensitivity and specificity rather than a theoretical law, and may warrant recalibration as post-ETF cycles accumulate. The exact construction (normalisation, start of series and threshold calibration) is proprietary Trinity and is not benchmarked against any external source.

Common mistakes to avoid

• Reading it as a buy or sell instruction: it is not. It describes where the price-to-cost ratio sits inside its own history - a reading of regime, nothing more. • Confusing the 0-100 reading with a probability: it is a relative position inside the observed history, not a probability of a top or bottom. A reading of 90 means the measure sits in the highest part of its observed history, not a 90% chance of anything. • Treating the cold/hot thresholds as fixed price levels: the thermometer is in score units, not dollars; the same reading corresponds to very different prices across cycles. • Expecting instant reversals at the extremes: historically the market spent weeks to months inside the Hot and Cold bands before turning; the extremes describe a regime window, not a precise turning point. • Ignoring the post-ETF caveat: most of the observable history predates spot ETFs; post-ETF amplitude compression may shift where the extremes register.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/cycle-intelligence/metrics/cycle-cost-basis-thermometer/data?timeframe=90d' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "cycle-cost-basis-thermometer",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

Related metrics

• cycle-pi-cycle-risk-oscillator
• cycle-euphoria-zone-detector
• cycle-pi-cycle-highs-and-lows

Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.