UTXO Profit/Loss Ratio
Ratio of supply in profit vs. supply in loss. Values >1 mean more supply is profitable. Extreme readings mark cycle tops (>>1) or bottoms (<<1).
What is it?
The UTXO Profit/Loss Ratio compares, for each day, the number of UTXOs whose acquisition price is below the spot price (in unrealised profit) to the number of UTXOs whose acquisition price is above the spot price (in unrealised loss). A ratio of 1 means parity: as many UTXOs in profit as in loss. A ratio of 2 means twice as many profitable UTXOs as unprofitable ones. Unlike Net Realized P/L which measures USD flows, this ratio is strictly dimensionless and counts UTXOs unit by unit — it is therefore insensitive to individual position size and reflects the behavioural distribution of the network.
How to read
The line oscillates around the 1.0 parity threshold marked by a 'Break-even' reference line. Above 1: most UTXOs are in profit, expansion phase. Below 1: most UTXOs are in loss, typical bearish pain zone. Extreme readings (>> 10 or << 0.5) mark cycle excesses. Log scale is enabled by default to read bullish and bearish phases symmetrically.
Key zones
Ratio > 10: extreme euphoria — more than 90% of UTXOs in profit, typically seen at 2017 and 2021 tops. Ratio between 2 and 10: healthy bull market. Ratio between 1 and 2: moderate expansion. Ratio between 0.5 and 1: sell pressure, the market tilts. Ratio < 0.5: capitulation — most UTXOs acquired above spot, historical bottom zones (December 2018, March 2020, June 2022).
What to observe
Watch for 1.0 threshold crossovers: a sustained shift from < 1 to > 1 over several weeks is a historical end-of-bear indication. Conversely, a durable drop below 1 after a > 5 phase is a distribution marker. The ratio loses relevance in early Bitcoin history (2010-2012) where the low total UTXO count produces unrepresentative extreme values.
Historical context
Since 2013, the ratio has crossed the 10 threshold three times — each coinciding with a terminal euphoric cycle phase (2013, 2017, 2021). It dropped below 0.5 four times — December 2018, March 2020, June and November 2022 — marking a major bottom each time. The ratio is recognised as a more robust sentiment indicator than the simple percentage of supply in profit because it is less sensitive to whale concentrations.
Expert notes
The ratio counts each UTXO once regardless of its value: a 0.0001 BTC UTXO weighs as much as a 1,000 BTC UTXO. For a value-weighted reading, prefer the % supply in profit (distinct metric). Both readings are complementary: when the ratio and % supply diverge, it reveals redistribution between small and large holders. The source of truth is a self-hosted Bitcoin full node.
Common mistakes to avoid
Do not confuse with Net Realized P/L which is a USD flow — this ratio is dimensionless and counts UTXOs, not dollars. A ratio at 0.8 does not mean 80% of holders are in loss: UTXOs are not holders (a single holder can own hundreds of UTXOs). Pre-2012 values are numerically correct but statistically unrepresentative because of the low total UTXO count at the time.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/utxo-profit-loss-ratio/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "utxo-profit-loss-ratio",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.