UTXO Age Bands (STH vs LTH)
Percentage of supply held by Short-Term (<6m) vs Long-Term (>2y) holders from real UTXO age data. Shows the cycle dynamic between hot money and convicted holders.
What is it?
UTXO Age Bands measures two complementary structural cohorts of Bitcoin supply: STH supply (Short-Term Holders, UTXOs whose last transaction is less than 6 months old) and LTH supply (Long-Term Holders, UTXOs dormant for more than 2 years). The calculation directly aggregates native Bitcoin full node age bands (utxos_1h_to_1d, utxos_1d_to_1w, … utxos_over_10y brackets) to rebuild these two percentages. The sum STH + LTH does not equal 100% because the intermediate zone (6 months to 2 years) exists but is not displayed here. This dual view captures the structural tension between 'hot money' (recent capital, price-sensitive) and 'convicted holders' (old capital, resistant to fluctuations).
How to read
Two lines are displayed: STH Supply (primary) and LTH Supply (secondary). Rising STH marks a rotation of dormant coins into active hands - typical of distribution phases and bull markets. Rising LTH indicates that recently accumulated coins are aging into the long-term cohort - typical of accumulation phases and bear markets. The structural STH ↔ LTH crossover is the major indicator: at cycle tops, STH peaks; at cycle bottoms, LTH peaks. The mirror dynamic between the two cohorts is mechanical - every transferred coin moves from LTH to STH instantly.
Key zones
Historically, LTH oscillates between ~55% (cycle tops, holder capitulation) and ~75% (cycle bottoms, maximum dormancy). STH varies in mirror between ~10% (deep bears) and ~30% (euphoric tops). LTH > 70% marks supply tightly locked by conviction holders - bullish configuration. STH > 25% indicates over-rotation of coins into active hands - cautious configuration. Relative crossings (STH vs LTH acceleration) are more informative than absolute levels.
What to observe
Observe inflections of both curves at major event dates: halving (LTH typically accelerates 6-12 months afterward as accumulated coins age), blow-off tops (STH explodes while LTH collapses, maximum distribution), capitulations (asymmetric crossover where STH drops to its floor while LTH crosses its historical dormancy threshold). Divergences between BTC price and bands are particularly powerful: rising price with stagnant or rising LTH marks adoption without distributive euphoria (structurally bullish).
Historical context
UTXO age bands are a fundamental on-chain analysis framework, formalised by the work of Dhruv Bansal (Unchained Capital) with the HODL Waves concept. Every Bitcoin cycle since 2013 has shown the same mechanical sequence: deep bear → LTH at its historical dormancy maximum → first latent accumulation → bullish transition (STH starts growing) → euphoria (STH explodes, LTH collapses toward its cyclical floor) → next bear. Major events (Mt.Gox 2014, China ban 2017/2021, COVID March 2020, FTX November 2022) have all produced characteristic signatures in both bands.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity-specific definitions - Trinity uses STH < 6 months (~180 days) and LTH > 2 years, which differs from the industry standard (typically 155 days). This is intentional: the aggregated UTXO age bands available on-chain via the full node (utxos_1h_to_1d, utxos_1d_to_1w, … utxos_over_10y) do not permit an exact 155-day threshold, so Trinity aggregates the closest brackets compatible with native age bands. STH and LTH bands are proportions of total supply (as percentages), not absolute coin counts. The intermediate zone 6 months to 2 years exists but is not rendered on this chart to prioritise STH/LTH contrast readability. For fine decomposition into 12 bands, see HODL Waves (chart #1).
Common mistakes to avoid
STH is NOT 'coins at risk of being sold' - it simply represents coins recently moved. An exchange consolidating its cold wallets into hot wallets every 6 months appears as STH without any intent to sell. Likewise, LTH does not strictly capture 'convicted holders' - it also includes lost coins (forgotten keys, Satoshi addresses) that have not moved in years. True interpretation goes through the DERIVATIVE (speed of aging or rejuvenation) rather than absolute levels. Note: Trinity's STH/LTH thresholds (6m / 2y) are wider than the industry standard (155d), which may create visual discrepancies with other platforms.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/utxo-band-analysis/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "utxo-band-analysis",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.