Trinity Cohort Conviction IndexTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
Trinity Cohort Conviction Index - a proprietary 0-100 score ranking each halving-epoch cohort by holder conviction. Trinity exclusive model.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
The Trinity Cohort Conviction Index condenses each halving-epoch cohort's survival trajectory into a single score bounded between 0 and 100: the higher the score, the longer and more consistently the cohort kept its coins. It synthesises average retention over the observed horizon and cycle-phase context. It is a Trinity exclusive model: the formula, weights and components are not disclosed.
How to read
Compare the scores across cohorts: a high score marks the most convinced generation of buyers, a low score the most prone to distribute. The ranking is more informative than the absolute level - it places the in-progress cohort relative to past cycles at the same stage. Read the index as an indication of relative conviction, never as a recommendation.
Key zones
Above 50, the cohort shows high conviction (durable retention); between 25 and 50, moderate conviction; below 25, weak conviction (distribution-dominated). These bounds are calibrated on the historical amplitude observed across cycles.
What to observe
Track how the ranking evolves as the in-progress cohort matures: a score holding above past cohorts at the same age indicates an exceptionally sticky base. A rapid degradation of the score marks entry into a distribution phase.
Historical context
The index covers the cohorts of the 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 halvings. The 2009-2012 cohort is excluded (unstable denominator, no market price before mid-2010). Validated across multiple Bitcoin cycles, the index aims to make the conviction of buyer generations separated by years directly comparable.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - the exact composition (components, weights, normalisation) is not disclosed. The index builds on the same public foundation as the other views in this family (Kaplan-Meier survival on age bands, HODL Waves lineage from Unchained Capital, 2018), enriched with a proprietary cycle-phase context layer. Only the score (0-100) and its atemporal interpretation are exposed.
Common mistakes to avoid
The score is neither a probability nor a price target: it is a relative measure of a cohort's conviction, to be compared between generations at the same age. A high score may include coins immobile due to lost keys. Finally, the in-progress cohort being incomplete, its score will evolve - it should not be compared raw to fully mature cohorts.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/trinity-cohort-conviction-index/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "trinity-cohort-conviction-index",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.