Cohort Decay Rate per Cycle
Daily spend velocity of each cohort — the rate at which a halving-epoch cohort's coins leave their original hands, revealing distribution tempo across cycles.
What is it?
This metric is the time-derivative of the survival curve: for each epoch cohort it measures how fast retention falls, expressed in percentage points lost per day (smoothed over 30 days). Where the survival curve shows how much remains, the decay rate shows how fast coins leave. It is, for a cohort, the equivalent of a spend velocity.
How to read
Decay spikes mark active distribution phases; plateaus near zero mark dormancy (strong conviction). By aligning cohorts on days post-onboarding, you compare distribution tempo from one cycle to the next at the same age: a cohort decaying more slowly than its predecessors at the same stage indicates a more patient base.
Key zones
The rate is by construction positive or zero (retention does not rebound). Values near zero indicate a frozen cohort; high sustained values indicate a fast exit. Punctual bursts often coincide with cycle extremes — the value is in comparing their amplitude and timing across cohorts.
What to observe
Watch the inflections: a cohort's first large decay spike often marks the start of its distribution phase. Compare the age at which this spike occurs from one cycle to the next — a later spike suggests more patient holders. Cross-reference with the in-progress cohort's rate to place the current tempo.
Historical context
Across the 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 cohorts, the sharpest decay spikes have historically accompanied the advanced phases of each cycle. The 2009-2012 cohort is hidden by default (unstable denominator). The exact tempo varies from cycle to cycle, which is precisely the object of the comparison.
Expert notes
The rate is computed as the difference in survival over a 30-day rolling window, divided by the window, in percentage points per day. The smoothing attenuates age-band interpolation noise without hiding genuine inflections. Lineage: HODL Waves (Unchained Capital, 2018) and cohort survival analysis applied to the UTXO set.
Common mistakes to avoid
A high decay rate is not mechanically 'bearish': an old cohort can redistribute to new convinced holders. Conversely, a zero rate may reflect lost keys rather than active conviction. The rate describes a tempo, not an intent — it is read in relative terms (between cohorts, at the same age), never in isolation.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/cohort-decay-rate-per-cycle/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "cohort-decay-rate-per-cycle",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.