Tourist Capitulation TrackerTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE - Compares the spent-output profit ratio of Tourist holders (high cost basis, weak hands) against Smart Money holders. When tourists spend deep below 1.0 they are realizing losses - isolating the weak-hand capitulation that aggregate ratios blur.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
The spent-output profit ratio (SOPR) measures whether coins moved on a given day are sold in profit (>1) or loss (<1). Here it is computed separately for Tourists (high cost basis) and Smart Money (low cost basis), then smoothed over 30 days to surface a clean trend from the noise of one-off very-old-coin sells. The axis is logarithmic because SOPR is a ratio: 0.5 and 2.0 sit equidistant from the 1.0 break-even. Isolating Tourists captures the weak-hand pain that the market-wide version dilutes.
How to read
The 1.0 line is the profit/loss boundary. When Tourist SOPR drops well below 1.0, late entrants are selling at a loss - capitulation. Smart Money SOPR typically stays closer to 1.0 (they rarely sell at a loss). The gap between the two lines measures the stress imbalance between the groups.
Key zones
Tourist SOPR well below 1: severe capitulation, historically near local bottoms. Around 1: balance. Above 1: Tourists selling back into profit, recovery or euphoric conditions.
What to observe
Watch deep troughs in Tourist SOPR paired with stable Smart Money SOPR: this divergence indicates weak hands being shaken out while strong hands hold - a classic end-of-purge configuration. A durable return above 1.0 confirms Tourist selling pressure is exhausting.
Historical context
The most violent capitulation phases of past bear markets (late 2018, mid-2022) came with extreme plunges in late-entrant realized profit, while strong hands stayed mostly around break-even.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - Cost-basis cohort SOPR differs from age SOPR: a Tourist may have held for a long time yet bought expensively, and will appear here as a weak hand as soon as they sell at a loss. Mentally smooth the daily noise and focus on multi-week regimes.
Common mistakes to avoid
SOPR below 1 does not mean 'sell': it describes others' realized behaviour, not a recommendation. The ratio is noisy day to day ; only regime trends are informative.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/tourist-capitulation-tracker/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "tourist-capitulation-tracker",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.