Smart Money vs Tourist Cost BasisTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE — Plots BTC spot price against the average cost basis of Smart Money holders (who entered below the market's time-weighted average cost) and Tourist holders (who entered above it). Two cost-basis defense lines reveal where stronger and later hands sit relative to price.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
This chart splits Bitcoin holders into two groups by their entry price relative to the market's time-weighted average cost, not by holding duration. Smart Money acquired their coins when price was below that average cost (strong hands, low cost basis) ; Tourists bought above it (late entrants, high cost basis). Each group's average cost basis is plotted as a line, with spot BTC price overlaid. It is a lens orthogonal to the classic age cohorts.
How to read
The two cost-basis lines act as structural support/resistance levels. As long as price stays above the Tourist cost basis, even the latest buyers are in profit (euphoria). When price slides between the two lines, Tourists move into loss while Smart Money stays calm. When price breaks below the Smart Money cost basis, even strong hands are at a loss — a rare deep-capitulation condition.
Key zones
Above the Tourist cost basis: all cohorts in profit, euphoria. Between the two lines: pivot zone, Tourists at a loss, possible Smart Money accumulation. Below the Smart Money cost basis: extreme capitulation, historically associated with major cycle bottoms.
What to observe
Watch price crossing from one side of the two lines to the other: a durable return above the Tourist cost basis marks exit from a stress regime ; a clean bounce on the Smart Money cost basis confirms structural support ; a break below it accelerates capitulation. The gap between the two lines measures the cost dispersion between strong and late hands.
Historical context
At major cycle bottoms (2015, 2018–2019, 2022), spot price broke below the strong-hand cost basis — the market's rarest and most extreme condition. Conversely, late-bull euphoria phases are marked by price far above the late-entrant cost basis, a sign of excess optimism.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model — The boundary between Smart Money and Tourists rests on the market's time-weighted average cost at the moment each coin last moved, not on a fixed holding duration. That is what makes this lens complementary to age cohorts: a recent holder can be Smart Money (bought low) and an old holder can be a Tourist (bought at the top). Cross it with Realized Price by Age Cohort to combine both dimensions.
Common mistakes to avoid
Both lines are averages: within each group, real cost dispersion remains wide. A price crossing a line predicts nothing — it confirms a market condition already underway. Use these levels as macro attention markers, not as dollar-precise supports.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/smart-money-cost-basis-bands/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "smart-money-cost-basis-bands",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.