% Supply in Profit / Loss
Percentage of circulating supply held at a profit or loss based on realized price. Extreme profit = potential distribution; extreme loss = potential capitulation.
What is it?
This metric calculates, for each UTXO on the network, whether its last movement price is below (in profit) or above (in loss) compared to the current spot price. The aggregate result shows what percentage of total supply is 'in profit' and what percentage is 'in loss.' It is a powerful indicator of potential market sentiment: when nearly everyone is in profit, the temptation to sell is historically higher; when nearly everyone is in loss, the 'sunk cost effect' may limit sales.
How to read
The chart typically shows a line for % in profit and one for % in loss (complementing to 100%). When % in profit exceeds 95%, this has historically been associated with euphoric conditions. When % in loss exceeds 50%, this has historically coincided with capitulation conditions. The speed of change is as informative as the level.
Key zones
Zone > 95% in profit: historically associated with cycle tops, last observed in 2021. Zone 50–75% in profit: mid-cycle conditions without clear reading. Zone < 50% in profit (> 50% in loss): deep bear market conditions, observed in 2015, 2018, and 2022. The 75% in profit threshold has often served as a 'pivot' between constructive and distribution phases.
What to observe
Watch for 'plateaus': when % in profit stays stable despite rising prices, it indicates the market is efficiently absorbing sell pressure from holders returning to profit. A rejection (% in profit rising then quickly falling back) has historically marked a 'resistance rejection' where profitable holders are actively selling.
Historical context
The 2013, 2017, and 2021 tops all saw % in profit exceed 97% for weeks before starting to decline. The 2015, 2018, and 2022 troughs saw % in loss exceed 50%. Notably, the 2022 trough reached 54% in loss — a level comparable to 2018 despite a much higher nominal price, reflecting the entry of many new participants during the 2020–2021 cycle.
Expert notes
This metric treats all BTC equally — a 0.001 BTC UTXO in loss has the same weight as a 100 BTC UTXO in loss. For value-weighted analysis, prefer NUPL. The cohort version (STH vs LTH in profit/loss) offers superior granularity. The Elastic Profit Supply (Trinity exclusive metric) refines this analysis by limiting to coins actually likely to be sold (liquid supply in profit).
Common mistakes to avoid
The 'acquisition price' used is the price at the time of last on-chain movement, NOT the actual purchase price. A UTXO moved between two wallets of the same owner takes the spot price of that transfer as its new 'cost basis.' Internal exchange transfers also reset the apparent cost basis. The true % in profit/loss is probably different from the displayed figure.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/supply-profit-loss/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "supply-profit-loss",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.