Supply DeltaTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE - Net change in long-term vs. short-term holder supply over a rolling window. A widening positive delta (LTH growing, STH shrinking) is a classic accumulation fingerprint.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
Supply Delta measures the difference between the net change in Long-Term Holder (LTH, > 155 days) supply and Short-Term Holder (STH, < 155 days) supply over a 30-day rolling window. Formally: ΔSupply_LTH - ΔSupply_STH. A positive Supply Delta means LTH are accumulating faster than STH (net transfer from weak to strong hands). A negative Supply Delta means STH are absorbing more supply than LTH accumulate - net distribution from LTH to STH. This metric is a direct reading of supply flow between the two major holder classes.
How to read
The chart displays Supply Delta as an oscillator around zero, coloured green (positive = net LTH accumulation) or red (negative = net distribution to STH). Delta amplitude is expressed in BTC, allowing direct quantification of supply volume in transfer. Prolonged positive delta phases form visible 'accumulation plateaus' that systematically precede bullish phases. Prolonged negative delta phases mark distribution.
Key zones
A Supply Delta > +50K BTC/month is an indication of aggressive accumulation - LTH are absorbing more than 50,000 BTC per month above STH. Historically, sustained accumulation phases > +30K BTC/month (> 3 months) preceded rallies of +100% to +500%. A Supply Delta < -50K BTC/month marks massive distribution and has been observed near cycle tops (April-November 2021).
What to observe
Supply Delta inversion (negative to positive transition) is a structural indication of regime change. Observing the previous negative phase duration estimates the extent of distribution that occurred. 'Double dips' (delta briefly goes positive then returns negative) mark a bear market that has not yet finished its distribution phase. Concordance between Supply Delta and price confirms or denies the trend: price rising with a negative delta is a major bearish divergence.
Historical context
Most notable Supply Delta accumulation phases: H2 2015 (positive delta for 8 consecutive months before the 2016-2017 bull market), H2 2018-H1 2019 (positive delta 10 months, massive post-bear accumulation), and H2 2022-H1 2023 (positive delta 9 months after the FTX crash). Most intense distribution phases: April-December 2017 (record negative delta ~-80K BTC/month at peak), and March-November 2021 (prolonged 8-month distribution).
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - Supply Delta calculation requires precise tracking of the 155-day boundary, meaning ~1/155th of STH supply mechanically crosses to the LTH category each day ('maturity' effect). Trinity normalises for this effect by subtracting the average mechanical flow, thus isolating real accumulation and distribution variations. Without this correction, Supply Delta would have a structural positive bias (coins naturally mature toward LTH). The 30-day window is a reading/noise compromise - shorter windows (7d) are available for Performance users.
Common mistakes to avoid
Supply Delta does not distinguish 'voluntary' from 'passive' accumulation. A HODLer who forgot their coins contributes positively to LTH delta just like a convinced investor. Lost coins (~3.7M BTC) are counted as permanent LTH and bias the delta. Moreover, the 155-day threshold is a convention - some 'conviction' STH who buy and hold for 150 days are counted as STH just before flipping to LTH, creating an artificial temporal lag.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/supply-delta/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "supply-delta",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.