% Supply Held >1 Year
Percentage of circulating Bitcoin supply that has not moved in over 12 months. Rising values reflect strengthening long-term conviction and reduced available sell-side supply.
What is it?
1Y+ HODL Supply measures the proportion of total Bitcoin supply whose UTXOs have not been spent for at least 365 days. It is a direct metric of holder conviction: the higher this percentage, the larger the share of supply withdrawn from active circulation by investors resisting the temptation to sell. This metric is derived from Bitcoin's native UTXO analysis - every satoshi is individually traceable, enabling an exact (not estimated) measurement of holding age. The one-year threshold is conventional in on-chain analysis, marking the boundary between Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH) according to the model popularised by academic on-chain research.
How to read
The area chart shows the evolution of 1Y+ supply percentage over time. A rising trend indicates an accumulation phase: holders are keeping their coins despite market conditions - historically, this behaviour has been associated with bottom-building phases and late bear markets. A declining trend reflects re-mobilisation of old coins: LTH are starting to spend, either to take profits in bull markets or under pressure during extreme capitulation. The absolute level (e.g. 60% vs 70%) is also meaningful: high levels mean a large share of supply is 'locked up,' reducing available supply on markets.
Key zones
Levels above 65% have historically coincided with deep accumulation phases - typically observed 6 to 12 months before major bullish phases. Below 50%, a significant proportion of supply has been re-mobilised, which tends to occur at market tops or advanced euphoria phases. The rate of change is also informative: a +5% rise over 3 months indicates rapidly growing conviction, while a -5% drop over 3 months has preceded major corrections.
What to observe
The divergence between price and 1Y+ HODL Supply is the most relevant reading. If price stagnates or drops but 1Y+ HODL rises, holders are accumulating silently - historically a constructive medium-term indication. If price rises but 1Y+ HODL declines, LTH are distributing into strength - behaviour that has preceded market tops. Cross-reference this metric with the STH/LTH Supply Ratio to understand whether the transition is gradual or abrupt.
Historical context
1Y+ HODL Supply reached historical highs above 65% during every major bear market trough (late 2015, late 2018, late 2022), confirming that conviction cycles follow a repeating pattern. Conversely, 1Y+ HODL troughs (below 40-45%) coincided with the peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021. The secular trend is slightly upward, reflecting the maturation of Bitcoin's holder base. After each halving, 1Y+ HODL tends to accelerate its rise as holders anticipate the scarcity of new supply.
Expert notes
The 1Y+ HODL metric is robust because it relies on verifiable UTXO data, but it carries nuances. Lost coins (misplaced private keys, Satoshi's addresses) artificially inflate the percentage - an estimated 3 to 4 million BTC are potentially lost forever, biasing 1Y+ HODL upward by ~15-20 points. For a finer reading, Trinity also offers Supply Last Active which breaks down by granular age brackets (1-2 years, 2-3 years, 5+ years), allowing distinction between recent conviction and structurally inaccessible supply.
Common mistakes to avoid
A high 1Y+ HODL percentage does not constitute an indication to buy. It reflects a past state of conviction, not a prediction of future price. Furthermore, a rising 1Y+ HODL does not necessarily mean 'investors are confident' - it may also reflect lost coins or holders unable to sell (legal constraints, inaccessible cold storage keys). Conversely, a declining 1Y+ HODL does not mean 'panic': it may reflect rational profit-taking by holders who have reached their targets.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/supply-1y-hodl/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "supply-1y-hodl",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.