Realized Price by Age CohortTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE — Compares the realized price (average cost basis) of Short-Term Holders (<155 days) versus Long-Term Holders (>155 days) with BTC spot price overlay. Reveals the divergent cost-basis dynamics between recent buyers and seasoned holders.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
Realized Price by Age Cohort plots two curves on the same price chart: the average cost basis of Short-Term Holders (STH, coins held less than 155 days) and Long-Term Holders (LTH, coins held more than 155 days). Spot BTC price is overlaid as reference. This binary view reveals the market's cost structure by separating the 'front line' of new entrants from the 'hard core' of seasoned holders.
How to read
Each line acts as structural support/resistance: when spot price crosses the STH line downward, new buyers enter loss territory (typical early bear) ; when it breaks the LTH line, even patient holders are at a loss (ultimate capitulation). The gap between STH and LTH defines the market's 'cost band': wide at the end of a bull run (STH expensive, LTH cheap), tight at the end of a bear (cost convergence).
Key zones
Full profit zone: spot > STH > LTH, all cohorts in profit — confirmed bull conditions. STH stress zone: spot < STH but > LTH, recent buyers in loss and selling while veterans stay calm. Capitulation zone: spot < LTH, every cohort is at a loss — historical major-bottom indication (2015, 2018, 2022).
What to observe
Watch for convergence or divergence between the two curves: STH → LTH convergence typically marks the end of a bear (new entrants buying as low as veterans) ; explosive STH ≫ LTH divergence marks late-stage speculative inflow (typical of bull tops). Spot price behaviour at LTH contact is particularly informative: a bounce confirms structural support, a break accelerates capitulation.
Historical context
During the 2021 top, STH-RP briefly exceeded $54K before price broke STH then LTH in cascade over the next 12 months, marking the two successive bear stages. In November 2022, spot price ($15.5K) touched LTH-RP (~$16.5K) — a bottom indication later confirmed. Historically, the 4 LTH-RP touches (2011, 2015, 2018–2019, 2022) all coincided with absolute or near-absolute cycle bottoms.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model — The 155-day boundary between STH and LTH is a convention inherited from historical on-chain analysis — it is the point where the probability that a coin is spent again drops sharply. The two curves move at very different speeds: STH-RP reacts in weeks to recent buying flows, LTH-RP only moves slowly because mature coins are rarely spent. Cross this view with HODL Waves to quantify each cohort's relative weight in BTC volume.
Common mistakes to avoid
A STH / LTH crossover is never a prediction: it confirms a stress or recovery condition already in progress. Also, STH-RP and LTH-RP are weighted averages — within each cohort, individual cost dispersion is still very wide. Use these lines as macro attention levels, not as dollar-precise supports.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/realized-price-cohort/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "realized-price-cohort",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.