Smart Money Conviction DecayTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE — Compares the dormancy of Smart Money holders against Tourists on a logarithmic scale. Smart money dormancy that climbs after a long quiet stretch shows veterans beginning to spend coins held in deep conviction — an early mark of quiet distribution.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
Dormancy measures the average age of coins spent on a given day: high when old coins move, low when mostly recent coins move. Plotted separately for Smart Money and Tourists, it reveals when strong hands — usually immobile — begin to spend long-held coins. The scale is logarithmic because the two cohorts move at very different orders of magnitude.
How to read
Low, stable Smart Money dormancy means strong hands are holding (conviction intact). A rise in that dormancy after a long calm shows high-conviction coins finally being spent — a conviction decay that often precedes distribution phases. Tourist dormancy, far higher, serves as context.
Key zones
Low, flat Smart Money dormancy: maximum conviction, accumulation/holding. Smart Money dormancy spikes: strong-hand awakening, potential distribution. The log scale lets both cohorts be read simultaneously despite their amplitude gap.
What to observe
Watch the first rises in Smart Money dormancy after long calm periods, especially near elevated price zones: this is one of the earliest marks of quiet strong-hand distribution, even before price turns.
Historical context
Past cycle tops were often preceded by a gradual awakening of high-conviction coins, the firmest hands beginning to distribute into market strength.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model — The logarithmic scale is mandatory here: Tourist dormancy exceeds Smart Money dormancy by several orders of magnitude, and only the log scale lets both curves be tracked without crushing the strong-hand line. Cost-basis conviction complements the age reading without replacing it.
Common mistakes to avoid
Rising dormancy is not an immediate mass sell: it indicates that old coins are moving, which can be internal redistribution. It is the persistence of the rise, not an isolated spike, that is informative.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/smart-money-conviction-decay/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "smart-money-conviction-decay",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.