S2F Rainbow
Stock-to-Flow model with color-coded deviation bands indicating whether Bitcoin is extremely overvalued, fairly valued, or at an extreme discount relative to its scarcity-based fair value.
What is it?
The S2F Rainbow overlays colour-coded deviation bands on PlanB's Stock-to-Flow model. Each band represents a level of overvaluation or undervaluation relative to the S2F modelled value. From blue (strongly undervalued relative to S2F) to red (strongly overvalued), the chart visualises price's position in the S2F model residuals, rather than as a simple point on a curve.
How to read
Price oscillates between bands over cycles. Blue/green band periods have historically corresponded to accumulation windows (price well below modelled S2F value). Red bands coincided with speculative tops (price well above modelled value). The central yellow-light orange band represents price 'in line' with the model.
Key zones
The upper red band was reached only at the 2013 and 2017 tops. In 2021, price only reached the orange-red bands, never reaching the extreme red, which was interpreted either as a maturation indication or as partial model invalidation.
What to observe
Watch how price reacts after each halving relative to the bands. If the S2F model remains valid, price should trend toward upper bands within 12-18 months post-halving. A failure to exit the lower bands after a halving would be a strong invalidation indication.
Historical context
The S2F Rainbow gained popularity because it makes the S2F model more visually actionable than the modelled price curve alone. The bands clearly show that price spends the majority of time below S2F modelled value, with brief excursions above during euphoric phases.
Expert notes
The same fundamental criticisms of the S2F model apply here (spurious regression, no demand modelling). The rainbow bands are defined by the model's historical residuals - if the underlying model is invalid, the bands have no predictive significance. The rainbow presentation is more visually engaging but does not resolve the fundamental statistical issues.
Common mistakes to avoid
Confusing S2F Rainbow bands with the classic Rainbow Chart (logarithmic regression) bands is frequent. Both use colours but are fundamentally different models. S2F Rainbow is grounded in a scarcity model, the classic Rainbow in a time-price regression. Their predictions diverge and should not be mixed.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/s2f-rainbow/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "s2f-rainbow",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.