S2F Cross-Asset Model
PlanB's Stock-to-Flow cross-asset model mapping Bitcoin alongside gold, silver, and real estate on a log-log regression. Visualizes Bitcoin's scarcity premium relative to traditional store-of-value assets.
What is it?
The Stock-to-Flow Cross-Asset model (S2FX), created by PlanB in 2020, extends the original S2F by plotting Bitcoin on a scatter plot alongside other scarce assets (gold, silver, real estate, diamonds). Stock-to-Flow = existing stock / annual production. A high S2F indicates great scarcity. The model posits a log-linear relationship between S2F and market capitalisation, suggesting halvings propel Bitcoin toward valuation levels comparable to precious metals.
How to read
The scatter plot shows assets positioned by their S2F (X axis) and market capitalisation (Y axis), both in logarithmic scale. Bitcoin is represented by multiple points corresponding to its different reward 'eras' (50, 25, 12.5, 6.25, 3.125 BTC). The regression line suggests where Bitcoin 'should' sit for each S2F level.
Key zones
After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin's S2F (~120) exceeds gold's (~62). According to the S2FX model, this implies a potential multi-trillion capitalisation. The alignment of Bitcoin's past eras on the regression line is visually striking but statistically debated.
What to observe
Compare Bitcoin's actual position relative to the regression line after each halving. A persistent gap below the line (as observed in 2022-2023 for the 4th era) challenges the model's validity. Also observe whether the market's response to the 2024 halving confirms or disproves the modelled trajectory.
Historical context
The original S2F model (2019) and S2FX (2020) went viral in the Bitcoin community, with predictions of $100K+ for the post-2020 cycle. Price indeed reached $69K in 2021 but remained significantly below S2FX predictions that targeted $288K. The model remains one of the most controversial in Bitcoin analysis.
Expert notes
The S2FX model has been severely criticised by economists and statisticians (Nico Cordeiro, Vitalik Buterin). Key criticisms: 1) the regression mixes fundamentally different assets, 2) the high R² is an artefact of log-log on few points, 3) the S2F-price correlation is spurious (two growing time series always correlate in log), 4) the model ignores demand. Statistical cointegration has not been proven.
Common mistakes to avoid
Treating the S2FX model as a 'physical law' proving Bitcoin will reach specific targets is the primary mistake. S2F only models supply (scarcity) and entirely ignores demand. An asset can be infinitely scarce and worth zero if nobody wants it. Moreover, each previous cycle that 'confirms' the model was used to build it - that is overfitting, not prediction.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/s2f-cross-asset/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "s2f-cross-asset",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.