S2F Bands
Stock-to-Flow model with standard deviation bands (±1σ, ±2σ) showing the statistical distribution of price around the S2F regression line. Identifies extreme deviations from the model.
What is it?
S2F Bands add statistical confidence intervals (±1 and ±2 standard deviations) around the Stock-to-Flow model's central curve. Unlike the S2F Rainbow which uses arbitrary bands, S2F Bands are derived from the model's residual distribution. The ±1σ band should contain ~68% of observations and the ±2σ band ~95%, if residuals followed a normal distribution.
How to read
Price should statistically remain within the ±2σ band 95% of the time. Price above +2σ indicates extreme overvaluation relative to the model; below -2σ, extreme undervaluation. The ±1σ band defines the 'normality' zone according to S2F.
Key zones
Cycle tops (2013, 2017) touched or exceeded the +2σ band. Bear market troughs approached the -1σ to -2σ band. In 2022-2023, price fell significantly below the -2σ band for several months, an event that challenges the model's validity.
What to observe
Compare the time spent in each band cycle over cycle. If the model is valid, the distribution should be relatively stable. A growing tendency for price to stay below the central line suggests structural model drift (systematic overestimation).
Historical context
S2F Bands highlighted that the 2020-2022 cycle was the first where price remained significantly below modelled value for the majority of the period. This contrasts with previous cycles where price oscillated around the modelled value more symmetrically.
Expert notes
Using σ bands assumes the model residuals are stationary and normally distributed. They likely are not (heavy tails, autocorrelation). The ±2σ bands therefore do not necessarily contain 95% of future observations. The sustained break of the -2σ band in 2022 is a strong statistical rejection of the underlying model.
Common mistakes to avoid
Interpreting price below the -2σ band as 'guaranteed accumulation zone' assumes the model is correct and price 'must' revert. If the model is invalid (as the prolonged band exit suggests), these bands represent nothing meaningful and price can remain below indefinitely.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/s2f-bands/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "s2f-bands",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.