S2F Power Law Average
Hybrid model combining Stock-to-Flow scarcity pricing with power-law time regression. Smooths out S2F volatility by averaging the two approaches for a more robust long-term price corridor.
What is it?
The S2F Power Law Average is a hybrid model combining the Stock-to-Flow scarcity logic with the time-based power law regression. Rather than relying solely on S2F (which has shown limitations) or solely on time-based power law, this model averages the two approaches. The result is a more conservative and stable price corridor, benefiting from both models' strengths.
How to read
The hybrid curve generally sits between the pure S2F value (often too optimistic) and the pure power law (often more conservative). The resulting corridor is narrower than either model individually. Price oscillating around this hybrid average gives a more balanced relative valuation indication.
Key zones
The hybrid average eliminates S2F's most extreme predictions while preserving its halving-linked step structure. Cycle tops typically sit at 2-3x above the hybrid average, while troughs fall to 0.3-0.5x.
What to observe
Compare the gap between the two underlying models: if S2F and power law converge, the average is reliable. If they diverge strongly, the average masks real uncertainty about the fundamental direction. The growing divergence since 2022 is a warning indication.
Historical context
This hybrid model emerged in response to criticisms of the pure S2F that systematically overestimated price since 2021. By combining with the power law (which better withstood the 2022 bear market), the hybrid model provided more realistic estimates than S2F alone.
Expert notes
Averaging two potentially invalid models does not necessarily produce a valid model. If S2F systematically overestimates, the average will still be upward-biased. The hybrid model has no theoretical justification of its own - it is a pragmatic heuristic. Its added value is reducing prediction variance, not improving their fundamental accuracy.
Common mistakes to avoid
Believing the hybrid model 'fixes' S2F's problems is an illusion. It mathematically attenuates them but does not solve them. If S2F is fundamentally flawed (as recent data suggests), the average is polluted by a flawed model and should not be used as a valuation reference.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/s2f-power-law-average/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "s2f-power-law-average",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.