Skip to content

← On-chain Bitcoin

URPD - Realized Price vs Spot Price

Realized price (aggregate cost basis) compared to spot price over time. When spot price is below realized price, the average holder is at a loss - historically a key accumulation zone indicator.

Tier proOn-chain Bitcoinvaluationurpdrealized-pricesupportresistancecost-basis

What is it?

URPD classifies each UTXO by its last movement price and aggregates them into a price histogram. The result shows how much BTC has its 'cost basis' at each price level. Thick bars represent zones of high cost concentration - potential support/resistance levels as many holders are psychologically anchored there. It is a 'density map' of the market's acquisition costs.

How to read

The horizontal histogram shows price levels on the y-axis and BTC volume on the x-axis. The thickest bars indicate 'on-chain volume nodes' - levels where lots of BTC are 'stuck.' If price approaches a node from above, it may serve as support (break-even holders refuse to sell at a loss). From below, it may serve as resistance (holders in loss sell to exit at break-even).

Key zones

The 'air gaps' (zones with no or very few BTC) are as important as nodes - price can traverse these zones quickly as few holders are anchored there. The largest volume nodes in the current URPD are at price levels where the most intense trading occurred (typically prolonged range zones).

What to observe

Changes in URPD shape over time are revealing: if a large node 'erodes' (BTC redistributing), it means holders at that level are selling. If a new node forms at a high level, it means much capital is entering at that price - potentially unsustainable if price corrects.

Historical context

URPD showed massive concentration nodes at the $9-10K (2020 range), $30-35K (mid-2021 range), and $16-20K (2022 range) levels. Each of these nodes subsequently acted as significant support during retests. The 'air gaps' above $69K (2021 ATH) and above $73K (2024 ATH) were clearly visible before the breakouts.

Expert notes

URPD is the aggregated version; the CBD Heatmap (tool #132) offers a 2D version with the time dimension. Combine URPD with Elastic Profit Supply to identify nodes representing not just volume but also potential liquidity. URPD nodes are 'polluted' by internal exchange movements, especially at recent price levels.

Common mistakes to avoid

A large node does NOT guarantee support/resistance. It is a concentration zone that creates an increased statistical probability of price reaction, not certainty. Actual behaviour depends on market context, sentiment, and external factors. URPD nodes are attention levels, not automatic decision levels.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/urpd/history?days=90' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "urpd",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

Related metrics

Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.