Puell Multiple
Daily miner revenue in USD divided by its 365-day moving average. Extreme lows mark capitulation bottoms; extreme highs have historically aligned with cycle peaks.
What is it?
The Puell Multiple, created by David Puell in 2019, divides the daily USD value of newly issued Bitcoin (block subsidy) by the 365-day moving average of that same value. It measures miners' profitability relative to their past year. A high Puell Multiple means daily miner revenue is far above the annual norm - potentially incentivising selling to lock in profits. A low Puell Multiple indicates miners are under financial pressure, generating less than their historical average.
How to read
The Puell Multiple oscillates around 1.0 (revenue = annual average). Values above 4.0 have historically coincided with market overheating zones. Values below 0.5 have historically coincided with extreme accumulation zones and maximum miner stress.
Key zones
Green zone (< 0.5): historically associated with cycle troughs and miner capitulation conditions. Red zone (> 4.0): historically associated with cycle peaks. Neutral zone (0.5 - 2.0): normal market functioning. These thresholds were calibrated on 2011-2022 cycles.
What to observe
Watch the trajectory rather than the absolute level: a Puell Multiple rising from the green zone marks the potential end of miner stress. The speed of rise toward the red zone indicates euphoric phase intensity. Post-halving behaviour is particularly informative as it combines the mechanical subsidy drop with price reactions.
Historical context
The Puell Multiple accurately identified the 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022 troughs (green zones) as well as the 2013, 2017, and 2021 peaks (red zones). The 2024 halving caused a mechanical 50% drop in the numerator, uniquely testing miner stress - the least efficient miners were eliminated in subsequent months.
Expert notes
The Puell Multiple is a lagging indicator by construction: it compares present to an annual average. After a halving, the numerator drops 50% mechanically while the denominator (365-day MA) still includes the old subsidy for a year. This post-halving asymmetry means the Puell Multiple underestimates real miner profitability for ~6 months post-halving as transaction fees (not captured by the classic Puell) partially compensate. Fees structurally represent a growing share of miner revenue as subsidy decays - their relative weight fluctuates with block space demand, spiking during congestion events (Ordinals/BRC-20/Runes 2023-2024).
Common mistakes to avoid
The Puell Multiple only accounts for block subsidy (issuance), not transaction fees. Yet fees represent a structurally growing share of miner revenue as subsidy decays - their relative weight fluctuates with block space demand, spiking during congestion events (Ordinals/BRC-20/Runes 2023-2024). The Puell Multiple may therefore mark miner 'stress' that does not exist if fees are high. The fee-inclusive version (adjusted Puell Multiple) is more accurate post-halving.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/puell-multiple/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "puell-multiple",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.