Miner Capitulation Index
Composite stress indicator aggregating hash rate drawdown, difficulty ribbon compression, and Puell Multiple. Identifies when miners are forced to sell, creating structural demand floors.
What is it?
The Miner Capitulation Index is a composite indicator aggregating two miner stress indicators into a single score bounded 0-100. The first component is the binary Hash Ribbon: it equals 1 when the 30-day moving average of hash rate drops below the 60-day moving average (a configuration historically associated with episodes where miners shut off machines), 0 otherwise. The second component is the Puell Multiple normalised on 0-1 (clipped to [0, 2] then inverted so that low Puell values = high stress). The final index is the weighted sum ribbon × 60 + puell_norm × 40. The combination provides robust detection of periods when miners are forced to sell their BTC reserves to cover operational costs - creating structural selling pressure but also, historically, price floors.
How to read
The index is normalised from 0 to 100. Low values (0-20) indicate healthy mining conditions - no notable stress. Values between 20 and 50 mark moderate stress, typically observed during 20-30% price corrections. Above 50, miner capitulation is likely: least efficient miners are selling BTC and some are shutting down machines. Values above 80 mark severe capitulation and have only been observed at major bear market troughs.
Key zones
The 50 threshold is the critical level: above it, at least two of three components mark significant stress. The 75 threshold has historically coincided with terminal bear market phases - when only the most efficient miners survive. The return below 30 after a capitulation episode has historically been a stabilisation indication preceding new bullish phases by 2 to 6 months.
What to observe
The speed of index rise is as informative as the absolute level. A sharp rise (0 to 60 in 2 weeks) indicates an exogenous shock (sudden price crash, adverse regulation). A gradual rise over months reflects progressive profitability erosion - often post-halving. Watch for divergences between the index and price: if the index rises but price holds, miner selling pressure is being absorbed by demand - a historically constructive indication.
Historical context
The highest index peaks coincide with the most significant market troughs: late 2014 (post-Mt.Gox collapse), late 2018 (prolonged bear market), March 2020 (COVID crash), and November 2022 (FTX debacle). Each halving also produces temporary stress (6-8 months) for marginal miners. The 2021 Chinese mining ban produced a unique indication - a capitulation spike without an associated bear market, followed by a geographic hash rate redistribution and price recovery.
Expert notes
The 60/40 weights (ribbon/Puell) are fixed and not dynamically calibrated - they reflect an empirical hierarchy: the binary Hash Ribbon dominates as it captures an irreversible physical commitment (machines shut off), while the Puell Multiple provides continuous modulation of profitability context. The 60 threshold is therefore reachable as soon as the Hash Ribbon flips to 1 (ribbon cross), and values above 80 require simultaneously very low Puell. For multi-cycle analysis, the index should be read alongside hash-price, which provides the profitability context per unit of computation. An enriched version integrating a 3rd component (hash rate drawdown weighted by historical z-score) is considered as a future improvement - but the current implementation prioritises legibility and robustness.
Common mistakes to avoid
A high index does not mean price will necessarily drop further - historically, capitulation peaks have more often coincided with floors than with the start of further declines. The index measures current miner stress, not future price direction. Moreover, miner capitulation is a gradual process: an index at 60 does not mean 'miners are capitulating right now' - some are, others are resisting, and this dynamic evolves daily.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/miner-capitulation-index/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "miner-capitulation-index",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.