Hash Ribbon
Crossover indicator derived from 30-day and 60-day hash rate moving averages. A recovery detection fires when the 30d MA crosses above the 60d MA after a capitulation period.
What is it?
Hash Ribbons, created by Charles Edwards (Capriole), use the crossover of 30-day and 60-day moving averages of estimated hash rate. When the 30-day MA crosses below the 60-day MA, the indicator identifies an ongoing miner capitulation (recent hash rate is falling faster than its medium-term trend). When the 30-day MA crosses back above the 60-day MA, capitulation is considered over. This bullish crossover has historically identified remarkable entry points as it captures the moment miner selling pressure eases.
How to read
The indicator is binary: the zone between the bearish crossover (capitulation start) and the bullish crossover (capitulation end) is the 'capitulation zone'. The favourable-conditions indication is the bullish crossover - the 30-day MA crossing back above the 60-day MA. Capitulation intensity (gap between the two MAs) indicates miner stress severity.
Key zones
Hash Ribbons bullish crossovers have historically coincided with recovery phases. Between 2011 and 2023, bullish crossovers preceded phases of positive returns over 6-12 months, though the limited number of occurrences (~8) does not allow deriving a statistically robust rule. Capitulation duration (time between bearish and bullish crossovers) has been correlated with recovery magnitude.
What to observe
Watch for bearish crossover appearance (capitulation start) then patiently await the bullish crossover (resolution). False readings are rare but possible - brief crossovers (< 1 week) without genuine miner stress can occur during normal hash rate variations. 4+ week capitulations are most reliable.
Historical context
Hash Ribbons coincided with the end of major capitulations in 2015, 2018, 2020 (COVID), and 2022. The January 2019 bullish crossover preceded a 300%+ rally. The post-China ban reading (August 2021) preceded the second cycle peak. The January 2023 crossover preceded the start of the current bull market.
Expert notes
Hash Ribbons rely on estimated hash rate, which has 10-15% uncertainty. This uncertainty can occasionally produce false crossovers. Combining with the Difficulty Ribbon (based on difficulty, which is deterministic and not estimated) reduces false positives. Edwards recommends confirming with difficulty and a price momentum indicator (e.g., 10/20 SMA of price).
Common mistakes to avoid
Hash Ribbons are not a precise timing indicator - the bullish crossover can precede the price trough by several weeks or occur after it. It is an indication of favourable conditions, not a tick-precise entry point. Applying Hash Ribbons as a mechanical reading without market context ignores the limitations of any historical model.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/hash-ribbon/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "hash-ribbon",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.