Puell-Mayer CrossTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE - Combined indicator that activates when both the Puell Multiple and Mayer Multiple enter their historically overvalued or undervalued zones simultaneously. Dual confirmation reduces false positives.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
The Puell-Mayer Cross multiplies two independent indicators: the Puell Multiple (daily mining revenue / 365-day average) and the Mayer Multiple (price / 200 DMA). The product creates a composite oscillator whose extreme values only appear when both factors are simultaneously elevated or simultaneously depressed. For example, Puell 3.0 × Mayer 2.5 = 7.5 (strong joint overheating), while Puell 0.3 × Mayer 0.5 = 0.15 (joint undervaluation). Multiplication is a natural amplifier: if only one factor is extreme and the other neutral (e.g., Puell=4 × Mayer=1.0 = 4.0), the product remains moderate.
How to read
The chart displays a continuous curve representing the Puell × Mayer product with a BTC overlay. High values (> 5.0) indicate that mining profitability AND price premium over trend are simultaneously excessive - conditions historically associated with cycle tops. Low values (< 0.3) indicate both dimensions are simultaneously depressed - conditions historically associated with troughs. The neutral zone (0.5-3.0) corresponds to markets where at least one factor remains near its average.
Key zones
Product > 8.0: both indicators in joint overheating. Historically observed at 2013 and 2017 tops (Puell > 4, Mayer > 2.4). Product 3.0-8.0: alert zone, one factor extending. Product 0.5-3.0: neutral zone. Product < 0.3: joint undervaluation, observed in December 2018, March 2020, November 2022. Product < 0.1: historical extreme, very rare.
What to observe
Decomposing the product is as informative as its absolute value. A product of 4.0 can result from Puell=4 × Mayer=1.0 (miners overheating, price on trend) or Puell=1.0 × Mayer=4.0 (normal miners, parabolic price). Both scenarios have different implications. Always cross-reference with individual Puell and Mayer values to understand the source of the extreme.
Historical context
The Puell Multiple (David Puell, 2019) captures mining dynamics (supply) and the Mayer Multiple (Trace Mayer, 2017) captures price dynamics relative to trend (demand). Their multiplication into a single indicator is a Trinity innovation exploiting their statistical independence. In 2021, the double-top cycle produced two moderate peaks (~5-6) rather than a single extreme peak, reflecting the divergence between mining dynamics and price speculation.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - The product is always positive (both factors are ratios > 0). The distribution is strongly right-skewed: historical median is ~1.2, but cycle tops produce values 5-10× higher. A log transformation (log of product = log Puell + log Mayer) linearises the distribution and can be useful for statistical analysis. ETF arrival has structurally modified the price/200 DMA relationship, which could shift historical product thresholds.
Common mistakes to avoid
A high product does not automatically mean 'sell'. A Puell-Mayer of 6.0 in 2013 (immature market) does not have the same meaning as a hypothetical 6.0 in the post-ETF era (institutional market). Structural volatility decline implies extreme thresholds should adjust over time. Moreover, the product does not distinguish which factor is responsible for the extreme - this decomposition is essential for interpretation.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/puell-mayer-cross/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "puell-mayer-cross",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.