Pi Cycle Top Indicator
Crossover of the 111-day MA and double the 350-day MA. Historically marks major cycle tops within days of the actual peak - one of the most cited on-chain cycle timing tools.
What is it?
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator uses two moving averages: the 111 DMA and the 350 DMA multiplied by 2. When the 111 DMA crosses above the 350 DMA × 2, the model marks a market top. The name comes from the fact that 350 / 111 ≈ 3.153, an approximation of Pi (π). This ratio between the two periods seems to capture a cycle rhythm tied to repetitive speculation around halvings. The 'Bottom' variant uses a reverse crossover or other moving average combinations to identify troughs.
How to read
Watch the convergence of the two curves. When the 111 DMA (fast) approaches the 350 DMA × 2 (slow) from below, the market is in potential overheating. The actual crossover has historically coincided within a few days of the absolute top. A widening gap between the two lines indicates room before the danger zone.
Key zones
The bullish crossover (111 DMA > 350 DMA × 2) is the critical zone. In past cycles (2013, 2017, 2021), the crossover occurred near the absolute top, but on a sample of only 3 cycles. A distance greater than 20% between the two lines suggests the top is still distant.
What to observe
Convergence speed gives a timing clue: fast convergence suggests an imminent parabolic top, while slow convergence may indicate a rounded top. Also observe whether price decelerates despite advanced convergence - this may mark a softer top than previous cycles.
Historical context
Pi Cycle showed notable proximity to the April 2013, December 2017, and April 2021 tops. In November 2021, the second peak did not produce a new crossover, creating debate about the indicator's validity in a double-top cycle. The sample remains extremely small (3-4 cycles).
Expert notes
The 350/111 ≈ π ratio is a numerical coincidence, not a fundamental mathematical property of the market. The model is a retrospective fit (curve-fitting) on an extremely small sample of 3-4 cycles. With the arrival of ETFs and institutional flows, cycle dynamics could structurally change, making these moving average periods obsolete.
Common mistakes to avoid
Treating Pi Cycle as a precise timing tool is dangerous. A crossover does not mean 'sell immediately' - it is a zone indicator, not a trading indication. Furthermore, having worked on 3 cycles in no way guarantees it will work on the next. The retrospective bias is enormous on such a small sample.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/pi-cycle-top/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "pi-cycle-top",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.