NVT Signal
Smoothed version of NVT Ratio using a 90-day moving average of transaction volume. Reduces noise and provides clearer overbought and oversold readings across market cycles.
What is it?
NVT Signal replaces the raw daily volume in NVT Ratio with its 90-day moving average. This filters the daily volatility of on-chain volume and produces a smoother, more directional reading. Created by Dimitry Kalichkin in 2018, it corrects the NVT Ratio's main weakness (excessive daily noise) while preserving its conceptual framework. NVT Signal is considered a medium-term trend indicator rather than a precise timing tool.
How to read
Interpretation similar to NVT Ratio but with more gradual movements. Threshold crossings in NVT Signal are more reliable as they represent medium-term trend changes, not daily fluctuations. A progressively rising NVT Signal indicates price is increasingly outpacing network usage; progressively falling, usage is catching up with price.
Key zones
As with NVT Ratio, absolute thresholds evolve structurally. NVT Signal is better used in relative comparison to its own recent history (percentile over 2 years) than by reference to fixed thresholds. Readings in the top 5% of the 2-year percentile have historically been associated with elevated risk.
What to observe
Divergence between NVT Signal and price is the main indication. If price reaches new highs but NVT Signal does not increase proportionally, it means on-chain volume is supporting the rally. If NVT Signal rises faster than price, valuation is outpacing usage - a caution condition.
Historical context
NVT Signal correctly identified late-2017 overvaluation and early-2019 undervaluation. Its most ambiguous reading was in 2020-2021 where institutional adoption (large infrequent transactions) structurally modified the price/volume relationship. Since 2023, Ordinals inscriptions temporarily inflated on-chain volume, artificially compressing the NVT Signal.
Expert notes
The choice of 90 days for the moving average is a compromise between smoothing and reactivity. Shorter periods (28d) are more reactive but noisier; longer periods (180d) are more stable but too slow for cycle transitions. Test multiple windows for your own analysis.
Common mistakes to avoid
NVT Signal is not a 'better NVT' in all cases. Its 90-day moving average creates a structural lag that can mask rapid regime changes. During sudden crashes or explosive rallies, NVT Signal reacts too slowly. Use NVT Ratio for the short term and NVT Signal for the trend.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/nvt-signal/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "nvt-signal",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.