MVRV Scenario BuilderTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE - Interactive scenario tool projecting future MVRV values at different price multiplier and realized-cap growth assumptions. Users dial in sliders and see the implied profit/loss zone (capitulation / neutral / healthy / overheating) overlaid on the historical MVRV chart.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
The MVRV Scenario Builder is an interactive projection tool. Users configure future price assumptions and realized cap growth, and the tool projects the corresponding MVRV values. This allows visualising the profit/loss environment implied by different market scenarios. The tool combines historical MVRV data with projection models to explore 'what-if' trajectories: what happens if price reaches $150K with realized cap growing 20%? Would the resulting MVRV be in euphoria or neutral territory?
How to read
Adjust target price and realized cap growth sliders. The tool displays projected MVRV in real time, overlaid on historical zones (capitulation, euphoria, etc.). MVRV > 1 means average network profit. MVRV > 3.5 marks a historical overheating zone. Overlaying scenarios on the historical MVRV chart provides context: is the projected MVRV in a zone already reached or in uncharted territory?
Key zones
Projected MVRV < 1: the scenario implies the network would be in average loss - potential accumulation zone. Projected MVRV 1-2: neutral zone, moderate profit. Projected MVRV 2-3.5: healthy profit zone but monitoring required. Projected MVRV > 3.5: historical overheating zone - massive profit-taking has always followed this level.
What to observe
Explore extreme scenarios to understand MVRV sensitivity. A doubled price with stable realized cap produces a very different MVRV than a doubled price accompanied by strongly rising realized cap (both cases occur in different market contexts). The tool reveals that realized cap dynamics are as important as price dynamics in determining the MVRV zone.
Historical context
Classic MVRV (Murad Mahmudov & David Puell, 2018) is a retrospective indicator. The Scenario Builder transforms MVRV into a forward-looking tool by projecting future values under configurable assumptions. This approach is inspired by stress-testing tools used in institutional finance to evaluate portfolios under different market scenarios.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - MVRV projections rely on two unknowns: future price and future realized cap. Price is a user input, but realized cap depends on on-chain activity (coin movement). The tool offers three realized cap growth models: linear (past trend), logarithmic (deceleration), and cyclical (halving pattern). Results vary significantly depending on the chosen model.
Common mistakes to avoid
Projected MVRV is NOT a prediction - it is an 'if-then' contextualisation tool. If price reaches X and realized cap reaches Y, then MVRV will be Z. The tool predicts neither price, nor realized cap, nor future MVRV. It allows understanding the implications of user-formulated assumptions.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/mvrv-scenario-builder/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "mvrv-scenario-builder",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.