MVRV Gradient 360D
Time derivative of MVRV over a rolling 360-day window - macro annual trend reading capturing multi-quarter valuation regime shifts.
What is it?
MVRV Gradient 360D is the smoothest macro filter of the family. Its annual window eliminates practically all sub-annual noise and retains only very long-term structural trends. Target reading: annual market regime (bull vs bear vs transition), multi-quarter strategic macro positioning.
How to read
Extremely smooth curve, slow oscillation around zero with minimal amplitude (massive smoothing). Ultra-rare zero-line crossings: typically 1 per complete 4-year cycle (alignment with Bitcoin halvings). Binary reading: positive regime = installed structural bull cycle; negative = installed structural bear cycle.
Key zones
Grammar is exclusively binary at this horizon. Positive phase = structural bull market in place. Negative phase = structural bear market in place. The transition between the two is typically indicated 6-12 months in advance by shorter gradients (90D/180D), then confirmed by this 360D gradient. Regime strength is readable by slope: strongly positive slope = bull accelerating; flattening slope = bull saturating.
What to observe
At this macro horizon, watch: (1) position in the current 4-year cycle relative to halvings, (2) coherence with other gradients (robust indication if all converge), (3) divergences with price over several quarters (persistent bearish divergence = multi-quarter pre-top cycl'indication). Reference tool for long-term strategic allocation decisions.
Historical context
360D gradient zero-line shifts have historically coincided with major Bitcoin cyclical transitions (e.g., early 2019 bear-to-recovery transition, early 2022 bull-to-bear transition, late 2022 return to positive). The 360D granularity corresponds to the typical duration of a Bitcoin cycle phase (~1-1.5 years between major turning points). Annual temporal convention from macro on-chain literature since 2019.
Expert notes
Performance tier because reserved for structural macro uses. Extremely lagging by construction (~6 months between real turning point and 360D confirmation), so inappropriate for tactical timing. Its value is confirmatory and contextual: confirms that a structural regime change has occurred after shorter gradients indicated it. Validation tool, not anticipation tool.
Common mistakes to avoid
Three frequent pitfalls. (1) Thinking this gradient predicts the future: it confirms the recent past. (2) Using it for short-term tactical decisions: its 6-month lag makes it unsuitable. (3) Confusing with mvrv-classic: the gradient measures a derivative, not a level. Complementary tool, never standalone, always to be crossed with short gradients and raw MVRV level.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/mvrv-gradient-360d/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "mvrv-gradient-360d",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.