MVRV Gradient 360D
Time derivative of MVRV over a rolling 360-day window - macro annual trend reading capturing multi-quarter valuation regime shifts.
What is it?
MVRV Gradient 360D is the smoothest macro filter of the family. Its annual window eliminates practically all sub-annual noise and retains only very long-term structural trends. Target reading: annual market regime (bull vs bear vs transition), multi-quarter strategic macro positioning.
How to read
Extremely smooth curve, slow oscillation around zero with minimal amplitude (massive smoothing). Zero-line crossings remain frequent on a daily scale: 42 upward and 42 downward in 15.8 years, about 21 per complete 4-year cycle. Regime reading therefore rests on persistence, not on the isolated crossing: only the 15 phases of 90 days or more describe a regime, with few-day reversals being slope noise. Binary reading of durable phases: positive regime = installed structural bull cycle; negative = installed structural bear cycle.
Key zones
Grammar is exclusively binary at this horizon. Positive phase = structural bull market in place. Negative phase = structural bear market in place. The transition between the two is typically indicated 6-12 months in advance by shorter gradients (90D/180D), then confirmed by this 360D gradient. Regime strength is readable by slope: strongly positive slope = bull accelerating; flattening slope = bull saturating.
What to observe
At this macro horizon, watch: (1) position in the current 4-year cycle relative to halvings, (2) coherence with other gradients (robust indication if all converge), (3) divergences with price over several quarters (persistent bearish divergence = multi-quarter pre-top cycl'indication). Reference tool for long-term strategic allocation decisions.
Historical context
The 360D gradient's zero-line shifts are too frequent (42 upward and 42 downward in 15.8 years) to mark a major transition on their own: on the delivered series, the durable return to positive values starts from late May 2023, not late 2022, and the negative phase before it ran from November 2021 to May 2023. Long phases (90 days or more) are the ones that coincide with major cyclical transitions, such as the positive phase from November 2015 to January 2018 or the negative phase from January 2018 to May 2019. The 360D granularity corresponds to the typical duration of a Bitcoin cycle phase (~1-1.5 years between major turning points). Annual temporal convention from macro on-chain literature since 2019.
Expert notes
Performance tier because reserved for structural macro uses. Extremely lagging by construction (~6 months between real turning point and 360D confirmation), so inappropriate for tactical timing. Its value is confirmatory and contextual: confirms that a structural regime change has occurred after shorter gradients indicated it. Validation tool, not anticipation tool.
Common mistakes to avoid
Three frequent pitfalls. (1) Thinking this gradient predicts the future: it confirms the recent past. (2) Using it for short-term tactical decisions: its 6-month lag makes it unsuitable. (3) Confusing with mvrv-classic: the gradient measures a derivative, not a level. Complementary tool, never standalone, always to be crossed with short gradients and raw MVRV level.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/metrics/mvrv-gradient-360d/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "mvrv-gradient-360d",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.