MVRV Gradient 180D
Time derivative of MVRV over a rolling 180-day window - mid-cycle macro reading smoothing tactical noise to reveal structural valuation shifts.
What is it?
MVRV Gradient 180D is a mid-cycl'indication whose semi-annual window eliminates nearly all short-term tactical noise. Its reading is exclusively structural: it indicates whether MVRV is in an expansion or contraction phase over the horizon of a complete bull cycle (typically 6-18 months between Bitcoin cycle troughs and peaks).
How to read
Very smooth slope on the time axis, oscillation around zero with reduced amplitude. A persistent positive regime >6 months confirms a mid-cycle bull phase. A persistent negative regime >6 months confirms a structural bear market or prolonged distribution phase. Zero-line crossings are rare (1-3 per complete cycle) but qualitatively very strong.
Key zones
Zone grammar is binary at this horizon: positive (structural expansion) vs negative (structural contraction). Intensity (gradient magnitude) informs about regime vigor - a strongly positive 180D gradient indicates accelerated expansion typical of mid-bull, while a slightly positive gradient indications end of expansion phase (saturation).
What to observe
Mainly observe two things. (1) Duration of current regime: a positive regime <3 months is immature, >9 months is mature. (2) Divergence with price: price rising but 180D gradient flattening = pre-top cycl'indication. This divergence typically appears several months before the price peak and offers a defensive positioning window.
Historical context
The 180D gradient has historically marked end of bull cycle several months before price peaks through progressive flattening (bearish divergence). Conversely, at end of bear market, the 180D gradient typically rises well before absolute price trough, offering a structural accumulation indication. These patterns have been studied by on-chain literature since the 2017-2018 cycle.
Expert notes
This horizon is a Performance tier because its use requires a complete Bitcoin cycle reading. Target user: structural investors positioning their portfolio over several months. For short-term tactical use, prefer 30D or 90D gradient. The 180D window corresponds to a semi-annual cycle and resonates with macroeconomic season changes.
Common mistakes to avoid
The 180D gradient is very lagging by construction (last 6 months filter) - unsuited for tactical timing. It does not replace mvrv-classic for reading the absolute valuation level. And its flattening is NOT an immediate sell indication: it is an end-of-expansion alert that can precede a peak by several months.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/mvrv-gradient-180d/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "mvrv-gradient-180d",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.