Mining Profitable Days
Daily mining profitability proxy - coinbase USD revenue minus electricity cost estimate via Cambridge CBECI methodology.
What is it?
Daily difference between miner revenues in USD (coinbase × BTC price) and an estimate of network total electricity cost, computed via the Cambridge CBECI methodology: global hash rate × modern ASIC efficiency (30 joules/TH/s) × global average electricity price (0.05 USD/kWh). A positive value indicates aggregate miner profitability; a negative value indicates global economic stress.
How to read
A sustained positive value means aggregate miners cover their electricity costs (excluding hardware and other expenses). A recurring negative value indicates an imminent capitulation period - marginal miners exit the market until difficulty adjusts downward. Positive amplitude reflects market headroom.
Key zones
A positive value > 50% of coinbase revenue (operational gross margin) indicates solid economic health for the mining sector. Between 0 and 50%, moderate margins. Below 0, stress period that historically precedes a capitulation wave and a downward difficulty adjustment.
What to observe
Cross-reference with historical capitulation waves: the metric often anticipates downward difficulty adjustments by a few weeks. Sustained periods of negative profitability generally correspond to macro cycle bottoms. Also watch ASIC efficiency evolution: a technological leap (more efficient new model) shifts the cost curve.
Historical context
Macro cycle bottoms (late 2018, mid-2022) were preceded by extended periods of negative profitability. The Cambridge CBECI methodology serves as industry convention for estimating global electricity cost. The parameters (0.05 USD/kWh, 30 J/Th) are averages - actual profitability varies strongly by jurisdiction (Texas, Iceland, Kazakhstan have very different costs).
Expert notes
The cost model used is deliberately simplified (a single average electricity price, a single average ASIC efficiency). For fine-grained analysis, segmentation by jurisdiction and ASIC generations would be needed. The metric remains relevant as an aggregate economic tension indicator, without claiming to represent each individual operator's profitability.
Common mistakes to avoid
A positive value does not guarantee that all miners are profitable - operators with expensive electricity (retail at 0.15 USD/kWh) may be losing despite a positive global average. Conversely, a negative value does not mean all miners shut down - those in cheap-electricity jurisdictions (Kazakhstan at 0.03 USD/kWh) remain profitable.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/mining-profitable-days/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "mining-profitable-days",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.