Market Cycle PhaseTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE - Proprietary continuous oscillator (-100 to +100) reading Bitcoin's cycle position from on-chain holder behaviour. Components, weighting and normalisation are not disclosed. -100 = deep accumulation, +100 = euphoria/distribution conditions.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
Market Cycle Phase is a Trinity proprietary oscillator that condenses on-chain holder behaviour into a single -100 to +100 score. Its components, their weighting and its normalisation method are exclusive and are not disclosed. What the score says: -100 means the on-chain reading sits at its historical low extreme, the profile seen in deep accumulation phases, at cycle bottoms. +100 means the opposite extreme, the euphoria and distribution profile seen at tops. In between, the score reads as a relative position in market history, not as a forecast. The score is auto-calibrated on its own history. That is what makes it comparable across cycles: a +80 in a past cycle and a +80 today describe the same degree of relative extreme, despite price levels that bear no relation to each other.
How to read
Score < -50: accumulation / deep bear market. Score -50 to 0: recovery, market in transition. Score 0 to +50: healthy bull market. Score > +50: overheating, distribution conditions. Zero crossing (from negative to positive) is historically the most reliable transition marker.
Key zones
Historical troughs (< -60) correspond to cycle bottoms. Peaks (> +80) correspond to speculative tops. Zero crossing (from negative to positive) is the most significant transition marker.
What to observe
Transition speed is informative: a rapid move from -50 to +20 indicates an impulsive reversal. A slow move reflects progressive structural accumulation. Oscillator/price divergences are relevant leading indicators.
Historical context
The 3 components (MVRV, SOPR, Supply in Profit) are reference on-chain analysis indicators. Their percentile combination offers a synthetic reading of overall holder positioning in the cycle.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model. The components, their weighting and the normalisation method are proprietary and are not disclosed. What is worth knowing without the recipe: this is a POSITION indicator, not a timing one. It says where the on-chain reading sits relative to its own history, not when it will turn. An extreme can hold for months, late-cycle euphoria persists for a long time before it breaks, and so does deep accumulation. Auto-calibration is what makes the reading comparable across cycles, but it also means the earliest years of history are less reliable: the reference sample is still thin there, so extremes are mechanically easier to reach.
Common mistakes to avoid
The oscillator does not classify the market into 4 discrete phases (Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, Markdown) - it produces a continuous score. Phase interpretation is a simplification. The score measures a state, not a future direction.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/market-cycle-phase/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "market-cycle-phase",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.