Smart Money Confidence
LTH MVRV / STH MVRV ratio measuring the relative profit position between long-term and short-term holders. High ratio = LTH positioned strongly, STH under pressure (accumulation phase).
What is it?
Smart Money Confidence divides Long-Term Holder MVRV by Short-Term Holder MVRV. MVRV measures the average unrealised profit/loss of a cohort. When the ratio is high, LTH are comfortably in profit while STH are under pressure - a typical advanced accumulation configuration where experienced holders are well positioned. When the ratio is low, STH are euphoric and LTH no longer profit proportionally - a late-cycle marker.
How to read
Ratio > 3.0: LTH dominate in unrealised profit, STH are at a loss or near break-even - accumulation. Ratio 1.0-3.0: neutral zone, both cohorts in profit. Ratio < 1.0: STH are more in profit than LTH - unusually speculative situation, often observed in terminal bull market phases.
Key zones
Historical ratio peaks (> 5.0) coincided with market troughs (LTH in large profit, STH in deep loss). Ratio troughs (< 0.5) coincided with speculative tops. The 1.5-2.5 zone is considered a healthy equilibrium.
What to observe
The ratio trend is more informative than its absolute value. A rising ratio indicates wealth transfer toward LTH (structural accumulation). A falling ratio indicates STH gaining ground - speculative dynamics.
Historical context
The ratio exceeded 10 during the 2015 trough and reached peaks close to 8 in December 2022. In December 2017 and November 2021, it fell below 0.5, confirming speculative overheating at historical peaks.
Expert notes
The LTH MVRV / STH MVRV ratio as a relative conviction proxy between cohorts is a proprietary Trinity formulation. The ratio is structurally biased upward in bear markets (LTH MVRV remains positive longer than STH MVRV). Extreme values (> 10) generally reflect STH MVRV near zero in the denominator, amplifying the ratio. On a log scale, the relationship is more linear.
Common mistakes to avoid
A high ratio does not mean LTH are 'smart' - it means they are in a better relative profit position. The term 'smart money' is a simplification; the ratio measures relative position, not actor intelligence.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/metrics/smart-money-confidence/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "smart-money-confidence",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.