Smart Money ConfidenceTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE - LTH MVRV / STH MVRV ratio measuring the relative profit position between long-term and short-term holders. High ratio = LTH positioned strongly, STH under pressure (accumulation phase).
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
Smart Money Confidence divides Long-Term Holder MVRV by Short-Term Holder MVRV. MVRV measures the average unrealised profit/loss of a cohort. When the ratio is high, LTH are comfortably in profit while STH are under pressure - a typical advanced accumulation configuration where experienced holders are well positioned. When the ratio is low, STH are euphoric and LTH no longer profit proportionally - a late-cycle marker.
How to read
Ratio > 3.0: LTH dominate in unrealised profit, STH are at a loss or near break-even - accumulation. Ratio 1.0-3.0: neutral zone, both cohorts in profit. Ratio < 1.0: STH are more in profit than LTH - unusually speculative situation, often observed in terminal bull market phases.
Key zones
Historical ratio peaks (> 5.0) coincided with market troughs (LTH in large profit, STH in deep loss). Ratio troughs (< 0.5) coincided with speculative tops. The 1.5-2.5 zone is considered a healthy equilibrium.
What to observe
The ratio trend is more informative than its absolute value. A rising ratio indicates wealth transfer toward LTH (structural accumulation). A falling ratio indicates STH gaining ground - speculative dynamics.
Historical context
The ratio exceeded 10 during the 2015 trough and reached peaks close to 8 in December 2022. In December 2017 and November 2021, it fell below 0.5, confirming speculative overheating at historical peaks.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - The LTH MVRV / STH MVRV ratio as a relative conviction proxy between cohorts is a proprietary Trinity formulation. The ratio is structurally biased upward in bear markets (LTH MVRV remains positive longer than STH MVRV). Extreme values (> 10) generally reflect STH MVRV near zero in the denominator, amplifying the ratio. On a log scale, the relationship is more linear.
Common mistakes to avoid
A high ratio does not mean LTH are 'smart' - it means they are in a better relative profit position. The term 'smart money' is a simplification; the ratio measures relative position, not actor intelligence.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/smart-money-confidence/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "smart-money-confidence",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.