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SOPR vs MVRV Regime

Spent Output Profit Ratio read jointly against the MVRV valuation regime on a dual axis. SOPR above 1 inside a high-MVRV regime marks euphoric distribution; below 1 inside low MVRV marks capitulation.

Tier performanceOn-chain Bitcoinvaluationsoprmvrvregimebull-bearjoint

What is it?

This view overlays the Spent Output Profit Ratio (left axis) and MVRV (right axis) to read profit/loss realisation in its valuation context. SOPR alone indicates whether moved coins realise a profit (>1) or a loss (<1); MVRV qualifies the market regime (over- or under-valued). Read together, they distinguish euphoric profit-taking (SOPR>1 in high MVRV) from capitulation (SOPR<1 in low MVRV).

How to read

The left axis carries SOPR (pivot 1), the right axis MVRV. The most telling quadrant: SOPR > 1 AND high MVRV = distribution in an expensive zone (late bull regime); SOPR < 1 AND low MVRV = loss realisation in a cheap zone (capitulation). A divergence between the two nuances a simple regime reading.

Key zones

SOPR pivots at 1 (profit/loss). MVRV delimits regimes: high = rich valuation zone (historical distribution), low = cheap zone (historical accumulation). The crossing of the two readings qualifies the context.

What to observe

Watch SOPR/MVRV concordance: intensifying profit-taking (SOPR>1) while MVRV climbs reflects late-stage euphoria; persistent loss realisation (SOPR<1) while MVRV is low reflects capitulation nearing exhaustion.

Historical context

At cycle tops, SOPR oscillated well above 1 while MVRV reached extreme zones; at bottoms, SOPR plunged below 1 while MVRV hit its lows. This dual reading helped distinguish passing corrections from true regime reversals.

Expert notes

The dual-axis joint reading replaces a dedicated 2D distribution: it favours the joint temporal dynamic (how SOPR and MVRV evolve together) over static density. For a pure distribution reading, cross-reference with the SOPR ±σ bands.

Common mistakes to avoid

The two axes have different scales - do not compare absolute values between curves, only their positions relative to their respective pivots (SOPR vs 1, MVRV vs its zones). The dual axis is a context tool, not a direct correlation.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/histogram-sopr-bullbear/history?days=90' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "histogram-sopr-bullbear",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

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Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.