SOPR ±σ Bands
Spent Output Profit Ratio framed by ±0.5/1.0/1.5 standard-deviation bands built from the full historical distribution. The shaded envelopes flag statistically extreme profit-taking or capitulation versus the all-time norm.
What is it?
This view plots the Spent Output Profit Ratio (the ratio between the sale value and the acquisition value of moved coins) alongside standard-deviation bands computed over all available history. The central line is SOPR; the six shaded envelopes correspond to ±0.5σ, ±1.0σ and ±1.5σ around that level. With the standard deviation computed in expanding mode (the full historical distribution), the bands reflect the normal dispersion of SOPR across all cycles.
How to read
The cardinal anchor is the dashed white horizontal line at SOPR = 1: it is the aggregate profit/loss break-even. Above it, moved coins realise an average profit; below, a loss. The 7 ±σ bands then measure statistical rarity: the central gold band (= rolling mean of SOPR) stays near 1; ±0.5σ bands delimit normal oscillation, ±1σ notable activity, ±1.5σ rare extremes (red on top = euphoria / green on bottom = capitulation). To study a single band, use the toolbar's «All bands» dropdown to isolate it - for instance «center» for the rolling mean or «band_p1.5» for the historical ceiling. BTC price (separate USD axis on the right) provides temporal context: it does not navigate inside the SOPR bands because the units (ratio vs USD) are incompatible.
Key zones
The break-even line at 1 separates profit/loss regimes. The ±0.5σ bands delimit the normal-behaviour zone; ±1.0σ notable activity; ±1.5σ rare extremes that have historically coincided with local tops (upper band) or capitulation bottoms (lower band).
What to observe
Watch crossings of the extreme bands and their duration: a SOPR sustained above +1σ reflects ongoing distribution, while a prolonged stay below -1σ reflects persistent capitulation. Divergences between SOPR and price (price rising while SOPR falls back toward 1) deserve attention.
Historical context
Cycle tops have been accompanied by repeated incursions into the upper band, while major capitulations (the late-2022 exchange collapse, the March 2020 crash) produced plunges below the lower band. The bands require several cycles of history to be statistically significant.
Expert notes
Expanding-mode bands gradually widen as history lengthens, which makes crossings more demanding over time - intended behaviour to avoid over-interpreting recent noise. Cross-reference with aSOPR to filter exchange noise. Reading note: the vertical axis is bounded to [0.5, 1.6] to preserve readability of the ±σ bands; the rare SOPR ~3 spikes observed in 2010-2013 (early years, thin depth) are visually clipped but accessible via the hover tooltip. The BTC price overlay sits on a separate USD axis (right) with a different scale - it does not navigate inside the SOPR bands (incompatible ratio unit).
Common mistakes to avoid
A crossed band is not a guarantee of reversal: extremes can persist during strong trends. The bands describe statistical rarity, not a price target. Do not confuse the expanding (historical) standard deviation with a short-term rolling one.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/sopr-bands-stdev/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "sopr-bands-stdev",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.