Balanced Price
Fair value price derived from the difference between the realized price and the transferred price (Realized Price - Transferred Price). Acts as a structural equilibrium level - price tends to oscillate around balanced price during accumulation phases.
What is it?
Balanced Price is calculated as Realized Price - Transferred Price, where Transferred Price aggregates the cumulative value of Coin Days Destroyed weighted by price, divided by supply and network age. It captures the gap between average acquisition cost (Realized Price) and historical transfer value. The result is an 'equilibrium price' between the floor and market value, serving as an on-chain fair value gauge. Created by David Puell.
How to read
Plotted between CVDD (floor) and Realized Price, Balanced Price acts as support in bull markets (above CVDD) and as a reference level in bear markets. Price below Balanced Price has historically coincided with cycle troughs.
Key zones
Balanced Price was touched during each bear market's final capitulations. It typically sits 30-40% below the global Realized Price.
What to observe
Price convergence toward Balanced Price in bear markets is an advanced capitulation indicator. The price / Balanced Price gap in bull markets measures extension above fair value.
Historical context
Balanced Price was within 5-10% of the absolute bottom during the 2015, 2018, and 2022 cycles, though the sample of 3 cycles remains statistically limited.
Expert notes
Balanced Price is part of Willy Woo's CVDD/Delta/Balanced/Terminal framework. As the median of fundamental prices, it offers the best compromise between reactivity and stability among the four models.
Common mistakes to avoid
Balanced Price is not an objective 'correct' price. It is a model based on specific calculation conventions. Other models (True Market Mean Price, Delta Price) give different results.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/balanced-price/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "balanced-price",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.