Cost Basis ExplorerTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE - Overlays the 3 Bitcoin realized-price cost-basis lines (Global / STH < 6m / LTH > 2y) with a filled STH-LTH spread band and the BTC spot price. 4 zoom presets + 4 cohort toggles + live defence-level summary pills and regime interpretation.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
The Cost Basis Explorer overlays three cost-basis lines (realized prices) per Bitcoin holder cohort: Global (all UTXOs), STH (short-term holders, < 6 months) and LTH (long-term holders, > 2 years), plus the spot price. A cohort's realized price is its aggregate cost basis: the weighted sum of the price at which each UTXO last moved, divided by the cohort's total supply. The coloured band between STH and LTH materialises the cost gap between recent buyers and patient holders.
How to read
Read the three lines as market defence levels. Spot price above the STH line means recent buyers are in profit and may begin profit-taking. Spot price between STH and LTH is a healthy regime: LTH are in profit, STH are near their cost basis. Spot price below the LTH line is historically rare and coincides with capitulations. The STH-LTH spread (coloured band) widens at tops (STH bought high) and compresses at bottoms (STH and LTH converge).
Key zones
STH realized price: short-term defence level. A sustained break above marks bull-market confirmation; a sustained break below marks prolonged-correction risk. LTH realized price: structural defence level. A break below has historically happened only in deep capitulations (March 2020, June 2022) and always preceded cycle bottoms. Global realized price: weighted average - the full-network profitability threshold.
What to observe
Watch the crossings. Each crossing of spot × realized price marks a regime change: Spot → above LTH after a bottom = end of bear market. Spot → above STH = bull-run confirmation. Spot → below STH = bull-market correction. Also watch the STH-LTH spread dynamics: a very wide spread marks an imminent cycle top (STH bought very high), a very narrow spread marks a trough (cohort convergence).
Historical context
Realized price was popularised in 2018 as a measure of the aggregate Bitcoin-network cost basis. The STH/LTH segmentation (classic 155-day threshold, Trinity uses 180-day/2-year thresholds consistent with its catalogue) has become an institutional-crypto analysis standard. Every Bitcoin cycle bottom (2015, 2018, 2022) has occurred at or just below the LTH realized price, before recovery. The 'defence levels' reading is preferred in professional trading over raw URPD distribution analysis.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - this initial delivery exposes the 3 cohorts (Global / STH / LTH) with the spread band, which are the levels professional traders use operationally. A later version will add full URPD temporal exploration (age × price heatmap with 'air gap' detection) - it requires a dedicated backend sync currently on the roadmap. The 3 current cohorts already cover 100 % of the regime readings that a finer URPD would reveal.
Common mistakes to avoid
Realized price is NOT the price at which an individual buyer bought - it is a weighted average per cohort. Two holders in the same cohort can have radically different actual costs. Furthermore, UTXOs moved on exchange (cold → hot wallets) are accounted for at the current price, which can inflate STH realized price after internal treasury consolidations without any actual sale.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/cost-basis-explorer/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "cost-basis-explorer",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.