Cost Basis Defense ScoreTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE - Probability that current price will hold based on the density of realized prices around it. Thick support = high defense score.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
The Cost Basis Defense Score measures the proximity of spot price to Realized Price (the network's aggregate cost basis). The formula is: Score = 100 / (1 + |relative distance|), where relative distance = (Price - Realized Price) / Realized Price. When price is very close to Realized Price (distance ~ 0), the score approaches 100 - indicating structural support is being tested. When price moves far away (above or below), the score decreases - support is not in play.
How to read
The score oscillates between 0 and 100. High values (> 70) mean price is very close to Realized Price - a structural 'moment of truth' where support holds or breaks. Low values (< 30) indicate price has moved significantly away from RP, support is not being tested.
Key zones
Score > 80: price is within a ±25% band around Realized Price - maximum tension zone. Score 50-80: moderate distance, support is 'on the radar.' Score < 50: price is far from RP - either in comfortable profit (above) or deep loss (below).
What to observe
Compare scores across levels to identify where 'true' on-chain support lies. Price descending toward a high-score level has a structurally higher bounce probability than toward a low-score level. Rapid score changes (strong support degrading) are warning indicators.
Historical context
CBDS showed high values (> 80) at each price contact with Realized Price: late 2018 ($3.2K vs RP $3.5K), June 2022 ($17.6K vs RP $21K), November 2022 ($15.5K vs RP $20K). These maximum score moments coincided with critical market decision phases.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - CBDS is a proximity measure to Realized Price, not a prediction model. Its informational value comes from quantifying 'how close the market is to its aggregate cost basis.' For more granular analysis, combine CBDS with Realized Price by cohort (STH/LTH) and NUPL to understand whether recent or long-term buyers are under pressure.
Common mistakes to avoid
CBDS measures structural probability, not certainty. A 'strong defence' score does not prevent a break if a major external event occurs. The score is probabilistic - even a 90% score has a 10% failure chance. Use it as one factor among others in analysis, never alone.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/cost-basis-defense-score/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "cost-basis-defense-score",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.