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LTH/STH PnL Breakdown (USD)

Supply in profit vs loss broken down by LTH and STH cohorts, expressed in USD.

Tier proOn-chain Bitcoinpnllthsthprofit-lossrealized

What is it?

This metric decomposes total supply across four complementary series: (1) LTH supply in profit, (2) LTH supply in loss, (3) STH supply in profit, (4) STH supply in loss. Each series is USD-expressed by multiplying by current price. A UTXO is in profit if its cost basis is below current price; in loss otherwise. The LTH/STH split follows the 155-day convention used as on-chain literature reference.

How to read

The four curves read as four market components. The sum (LTH profit + STH profit) represents unrealized gain capitalization; the sum (LTH loss + STH loss), unrealized loss capitalization. Relative cohort dominance characterizes the current market regime.

Key zones

Bull regime: LTH profit and STH profit dominate, both loss cohorts residual. Bear regime: both loss cohorts develop, STH profit collapses. Transition (bottom) regime: LTH loss peaks, marking structural-holder capitulation.

What to observe

The STH loss versus LTH loss ratio is particularly informative: loss concentrated on the STH cohort indicates tactical correction, while extension to the LTH cohort indicates structural long-term capitulation often associated with cycle bottoms.

Historical context

The March 2020 COVID crash saw a historic LTH loss peak marking the beginning of the subsequent bull run. The November 2022 FTX collapse reproduced a similar pattern. Cycle tops in 2017 and 2021 saw maximum STH profit dominance, indicating tactical market overheating.

Expert notes

USD conversion multiplies by current price, meaning the metric is co-moving with price at steady state. To decouple price effect from cohort effect, use the percentage-of-market-cap variant which normalizes this effect.

Common mistakes to avoid

An STH profit peak does not necessarily indicator imminent distribution: it may simply reflect revaluation of a set of recent UTXOs following a price rise without selling intent. The metric measures unrealized profit potential, not actual holder behavior.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/breakdown-lthsth-pnl-abs/history?days=90' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "breakdown-lthsth-pnl-abs",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

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Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.