Retail Euphoria Index (Google Trends)
Worldwide search interest for a 6-term retail euphoria basket ('bitcoin', 'should i buy bitcoin', 'how to buy bitcoin', 'bitcoin moon', 'bitcoin millionaire', 'ethereum') aggregated into a single 0-100 index. The classic Google-Trends-based retail FOMO gauge packaged with Trinity premium UI.
What is it?
Aggregates Google Trends search interest for retail euphoria terms ('bitcoin moon', 'should i buy bitcoin', 'bitcoin price') into a single normalized 0-100 index. Google Trends is the worldwide standard for measuring search intent. Trinity normalizes the basket so the value 100 represents the all-time peak of retail attention.
How to read
Higher = more retail attention. Spikes above 75 (red zone) correspond to extreme euphoria phases — historically the late-stage warning before cycle tops. Apathy below 15 (green zone) historically marks accumulation periods.
Key zones
Above 75 = Extreme Euphoria (historically late-bull warning). 50-75 = Heated retail interest. 15-50 = Normal retail engagement. Below 15 = Apathy / accumulation zone (typically lasts 12-24 months between cycles).
What to observe
Watch for divergences between this index and BTC price. When price prints new highs but the index does NOT (lower-high), retail is exhausted — late bull warning. When price prints new lows but the index does NOT (higher-low), retail capitulation is exhausted — bottom indication.
Historical context
The index has historically reached its highest readings around the December 2017 ICO mania (its all-time-high zone) and the 2021 dual peaks (May and November). Both the 2018-2019 and 2022-2023 bear markets saw the index collapse into the low single digits — the same dormant zone seen during the 2014-2015 post-Mt Gox bear.
Expert notes
Google Trends normalizes each query's interest 0-100 against its own peak. Trinity re-normalizes the aggregated basket across multiple queries to maintain cross-cycle comparability. Use in conjunction with on-chain metrics (MVRV, SOPR) for high-conviction cycle inflection points.
Common mistakes to avoid
This index measures attention, not conviction. High readings can persist for months before a top; do not treat any single reading as a trade trigger. Also, search interest is a coincident-to-leading indicator vs price for tops, but can lag vs price for bottoms (capitulation searches peak DURING the crash, not before).
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/narrative-intelligence/narrative-retail-euphoria-index/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "narrative-retail-euphoria-index",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.