Cycle Peak Predictor (Google Trends)
Z-score of aggregated retail search interest vs BTC price - measures divergence between attention and price. When retail attention spikes faster than price, top is near.
What is it?
Oscillator computing the Z-score (number of standard deviations from the rolling 2-year mean) of aggregated retail search interest divided by BTC price growth. When retail attention accelerates faster than price, divergence is high - historically a late-bull indication.
How to read
Z-score above +2 (red zone) = retail attention is 2+ standard deviations above its 2-year mean relative to price - historically a top warning within 4-12 weeks. Z-score below -2 (green zone) = attention is sub-normalized relative to price - historically a bottom-zone indication.
Key zones
Z > +2 : Cycle peak warning. Z > +3 : Severe overheating. Z < -2 : Cycle bottom warning. Z < -3 : Severe underheating (rare, last seen mid-2022).
What to observe
Watch for Z-score divergence with BTC price action. When BTC prints higher highs but the Z-score prints lower highs, retail attention is exhausting itself - classic late-bull divergence. When BTC prints lower lows but the Z-score prints higher lows, retail capitulation is exhausting itself.
Historical context
Z-score has historically reached its highest positive readings around major cycle peaks (December 2017 ICO mania, 2021 dual-peak cycle in May and November). Deep negative readings appeared during the late-2018 capitulation and the November 2022 FTX-collapse bottom. Each statistical extreme preceded a multi-month trend reversal.
Expert notes
Z-score normalization makes this metric cycle-comparable - the +2 threshold has the same statistical meaning in 2017, 2021, and 2024. Combine with on-chain MVRV-Z to confirm cycle-position with both off-chain and on-chain divergence.
Common mistakes to avoid
A Z-score reading is statistical, not predictive of exact timing. Z > +2 means historically a top occurred within 4-12 weeks - but each cycle has its own duration. Do not treat Z > +2 as a precise sell trigger; use it as a confirmation of late-cycle conditions.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/narrative-intelligence/narrative-cycle-peak-predictor/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "narrative-cycle-peak-predictor",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.