TPSP — Trinity Perp-Spot PremiumTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
Composite Trinity Exclusive normalizing the perpetual-spot premium across major venues. Highlights persistent dislocations between derivatives and spot pricing on a cycle-aware scale.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
TPSP captures the structural 'basis' between Bitcoin perpetual contract prices and aggregated cross-exchange spot price, normalised over an adaptive horizon to produce a standardised measure cross-cyclically comparable. A positive premium (perp > spot) reflects structural demand for long leverage; a negative discount (perp < spot) reflects either short demand or a risk premium on the perp market. Baseline adaptation keeps the reading relevant across successive regimes (bull, bear, post-ETF transition, post-halving).
How to read
The Y-axis displays the z-score, typically bounded between -3 and +3 standard deviations. The zero line represents the historical 1-year average basis. Above: abnormally high perp premium (leveraged longs in demand). Below zero: abnormally low premium or discount (leveraged shorts or market stress). Coloured zones delimit regimes: green (-1 < z < +1) = normal basis, yellow (1 < |z| < 2) = notable deviation, red (|z| > 2) = extreme deviation historically transient. BTC overlay helps link extreme basis episodes to accompanying or following price movements.
Key zones
Historically, TPSP readings above +2σ have identified perp euphoria phases (structurally high premium paid for long leverage), often followed by rapid normalisation via high funding discouraging persistence. Below -2σ, acute stress phases (perp at several % discount to spot) have been observed during major stress events — often associated with price troughs or temporary inter-market dislocations. The -1σ to +1σ zone represents the normal efficient arbitrage regime between perp and spot.
What to observe
Patterns to watch: (1) a TPSP > +2σ persistent > 3 days indicates extremely costly long leverage demand to maintain — spot/perp arbitrage always eventually closes the gap, either via price correction or via high funding purging longs; (2) a TPSP < -2σ accompanied by a price drop typically indicates a stress event (liquidation cascade, exchange failure, extreme macro news) — often transient; (3) divergence rising BTC price + TPSP declining toward zero = spot-driven rally (institutional, ETF), pattern often more sustainable than a perp-premium-driven rally.
Historical context
Notable historical episodes: extreme perp premium April 2021 (TPSP > +2.5σ before May Elon Musk correction), violent discount of March 2020 COVID crash (TPSP < -3σ for 48h, massive arbitrage opportunity), post-FTX discount November 2022 (TPSP < -2σ for several days, temporary inter-exchange dislocation), gradual 2023 normalisation, and moderate but persistent premium post-spot-ETF January 2024 (TPSP in +1 to +1.5σ zone for months, without reaching 2021 extremes). The post-ETF pattern suggests a more mature market structure where spot-perp arbitrage is more efficient, reducing extreme spread amplitude.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model — TPSP uses a normalised cross-market approach that distinguishes itself from raw basis indicators publicly available. The normalisation horizon is deliberately shorter than TFPI's because the basis is more volatile and adaptive to recent regimes — a 'normal' basis today is not the same as during pre-ETF phases (institutional flows impact, structural OI growth). Cross-market computation aggregates perp/spot pairs of major centralised exchanges via a proprietary weighting scheme preventing an isolated dislocation on a single exchange from polluting the global reading. The exact aggregation method, weighting scheme and precise normalisation window remain Trinity proprietary. Note: TPSP is by construction correlated to TFPI (perp premium and funding rate are mechanically linked by arbitrage), but both capture different aspects — TFPI captures directional pressure, TPSP captures the resulting price spread.
Common mistakes to avoid
Common mistake: interpreting a positive perp premium as a direct bullish reading. A persistent premium > +1σ simply indicates long leverage demand — it can accompany a healthy uptrend or precede a correction if it becomes extreme. Price direction depends on many other factors (spot ETF flows, macro sentiment, market structure). Another mistake: confusing TPSP (perp/spot premium) and funding rate (cost of maintaining a perp position) — these are two related but distinct metrics. Funding is an active mechanism that rebalances the premium, TPSP is the passive measure of observed imbalance.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/exchange-intelligence/derivatives-tpsp-perp-spot-premium/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "derivatives-tpsp-perp-spot-premium",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.