TDOI - Trinity Derivatives Overheat IndexTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
Composite Trinity Exclusive aggregating funding pressure, liquidation outliers, long/short regime and basis premium into a single overheat reading. The bounded gauge surfaces cycle-grade derivatives stress.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
TDOI is a Trinity Exclusive meta-composite aggregating several derivatives readings published separately by Trinity into a single bounded 0-100 score measuring the global degree of overheating or stress of the Bitcoin derivatives market. The internal weighting and the hierarchy of derivatives market transmission channels, from funding pressure to spot-perp arbitrage premium, are Trinity proprietary and are not disclosed. The score is directly interpretable as a heat gauge [0-100].
How to read
TDOI is a 0-100 bounded score displayed as a gauge or time series depending on context. Direct reading: 0-30 = calm to neutral market (low derivatives activity, long/short balance, no stress); 30-50 = normal activity; 50-70 = active market with moderate directional bias; 70-85 = notable overheating, vigilance required; 85-100 = extreme overheating or acute stress, unstable market regime. BTC overlay on the chronological version helps link TDOI peaks to corresponding price movements. Note: the 0-30 zone can occur in an apathetic bear market as well as in early bull cycle - TDOI measures derivatives intensity, not price direction.
Key zones
Historically, TDOI > 85 have marked extreme stress or euphoria phases - often followed by reversals or significant corrections in the following weeks. The 70-85 zone corresponds to a moderate overheating regime, frequent in mid and late bull market. The 50-70 zone reflects an active market without extremes - most frequent phase. Below 30, the derivatives market is dormant - either apathetic late bear market or early cycle before speculation returns. Exact thresholds evolve with market maturation, justifying periodic composite weighting review.
What to observe
TDOI is designed as a context indicator, not direct timing. Patterns to watch: (1) upward crossing of the 85 threshold = entry into extreme overheating zone, heightened vigilance required; (2) TDOI/Price divergence: BTC price rising but TDOI declining = spot-driven rally, more sustainable; price rising + TDOI rising = leveraged speculative rally, more fragile; (3) sharp TDOI fall from > 85 to < 50 in a few days = derivatives market washout, often associated with local price trough; (4) TDOI persistent > 70 for > 30 days = sustained speculative market regime, frequent in bull market but requiring vigilance.
Historical context
TDOI inherits the shortest history among its inputs: the score only exists where all of them are simultaneously measurable (coverage banner). No episode is cited here beyond this rendered history (SOP_EDCD 5.1), since a correction or capitulation predating the chart's first point cannot be illustrated by TDOI, even if it is otherwise publicly known. Over the history actually rendered, the highest readings have typically coincided with phases where the derivatives market carried the most leverage relative to the market that carries it; the lowest readings, with prolonged apathy phases. Threshold crossings should be read within the context of THIS rendered window, not a full cycle the data does not cover.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model: TDOI is the highest-level composite indicator of the Trinity Exchange Intelligence suite. Its construction as a meta-aggregate of Trinity exclusive sub-composites published separately means it inherits their cumulative properties and limitations. The importance hierarchy reflects distinct derivatives market transmission channels, from direct funding pressure to spot-perp arbitrage premium. The precise hierarchy, weighting coefficients and aggregation method remain Trinity proprietary.
Common mistakes to avoid
Common mistake: using TDOI as a directional timing indicator ('high TDOI = sell'). A TDOI > 85 indicates a statistically extreme overheating condition - it indicates heightened vigilance, not a trading instruction. The direction of subsequent movement depends on cycle context (a TDOI 90 in bull market may be followed by a 10-15% correction but with trend continuation; the same TDOI 90 at bull end may mark a cycle peak). Another mistake: interpreting a low TDOI as a bullish reading - a TDOI 25 simply reflects derivatives market apathy, which can persist for months in bear market. TDOI must always be read in conjunction with cycle indicators (MVRV, Reserve Risk, Pi Cycle) to be actionable.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/exchange-intelligence/metrics/derivatives-tdoi-overheat-index/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "derivatives-tdoi-overheat-index",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.