TDOI — Trinity Derivatives Overheat IndexTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
Composite Trinity Exclusive aggregating funding pressure, liquidation outliers, long/short regime and basis premium into a single overheat reading. The bounded gauge surfaces cycle-grade derivatives stress.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
TDOI is a Trinity Exclusive meta-composite aggregating the four previous Exchange Intelligence composites (TFPI, TLOI, TLSR, TPSP) into a single bounded 0-100 score measuring the global degree of overheating or stress of the Bitcoin derivatives market. The internal weighting, Trinity proprietary, ranks components by transmission channel: funding pressure (TFPI) captures the most direct leverage channel; liquidation stress (TLOI) captures acute capitulation episodes; directional regime (TLSR) captures the underlying long/short imbalance; spot-perp premium (TPSP) captures arbitrage tension. A bounded saturation function preserves moderate z-score components before linear aggregation, then a final transformation makes the score directly interpretable as a heat gauge [0-100].
How to read
TDOI is a 0-100 bounded score displayed as a gauge or time series depending on context. Direct reading: 0-30 = calm to neutral market (low derivatives activity, long/short balance, no stress); 30-50 = normal activity; 50-70 = active market with moderate directional bias; 70-85 = notable overheating, vigilance required; 85-100 = extreme overheating or acute stress, unstable market regime. BTC overlay on the chronological version helps link TDOI peaks to corresponding price movements. Note: the 0-30 zone can occur in an apathetic bear market as well as in early bull cycle — TDOI measures derivatives intensity, not price direction.
Key zones
Historically, TDOI > 85 have marked extreme stress or euphoria phases — often followed by reversals or significant corrections in the following weeks. The 70-85 zone corresponds to a moderate overheating regime, frequent in mid and late bull market. The 50-70 zone reflects an active market without extremes — most frequent phase. Below 30, the derivatives market is dormant — either apathetic late bear market or early cycle before speculation returns. Exact thresholds evolve with market maturation, justifying periodic composite weighting review.
What to observe
TDOI is designed as a context indicator, not direct timing. Patterns to watch: (1) upward crossing of the 85 threshold = entry into extreme overheating zone, heightened vigilance required; (2) TDOI/Price divergence: BTC price rising but TDOI declining = spot-driven rally, more sustainable; price rising + TDOI rising = leveraged speculative rally, more fragile; (3) sharp TDOI fall from > 85 to < 50 in a few days = derivatives market washout, often associated with local price trough; (4) TDOI persistent > 70 for > 30 days = sustained speculative market regime, frequent in bull market but requiring vigilance.
Historical context
Documented TDOI > 85 episodes (extreme regime): April 2021 (TFPI + TPSP combination in maximum euphoria zone, prelude to Elon Musk correction), 19 May 2021 (long capitulation, TDOI 95+ via extreme TLOI), September 2021 (Chinese ban), May 2022 (Terra/Luna collapse), June 2022 (Three Arrows), November 2022 (FTX, TDOI prolonged > 90 for ~2 weeks), and during the post-spot-ETF rally January 2024 (TDOI reaching ~80 without crossing 85). Most TDOI > 85 peaks preceded significant price movements (corrections in bull, capitulations in bear) — but the direction of movement is NOT predictable by TDOI alone, it depends on the global cycle context.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model — TDOI is the highest-level composite indicator of the Trinity Exchange Intelligence suite. Its construction as a meta-aggregate of Trinity exclusive sub-composites (TFPI, TLOI, TLSR, TPSP) means it inherits their cumulative properties and limitations. The importance hierarchy reflects the distinct transmission channels of the derivatives market: direct funding pressure, acute liquidation stress, structural directional regime, spot-perp arbitrage premium. This hierarchy is likely to evolve in future model versions based on empirical observations of recent market regimes (ETF impact, institutionalisation). A bounded saturation transformation is applied to sub-composites before aggregation — a deliberate choice to prevent a single extreme component from dominating the aggregate. The precise hierarchy, weighting coefficients, exact transformation and aggregation method remain Trinity proprietary.
Common mistakes to avoid
Common mistake: using TDOI as a directional timing indicator ('high TDOI = sell'). A TDOI > 85 indicates a statistically extreme overheating condition — it indicates heightened vigilance, not a trading instruction. The direction of subsequent movement depends on cycle context (a TDOI 90 in bull market may be followed by a 10-15% correction but with trend continuation; the same TDOI 90 at bull end may mark a cycle peak). Another mistake: interpreting a low TDOI as a bullish reading — a TDOI 25 simply reflects derivatives market apathy, which can persist for months in bear market. TDOI must always be read in conjunction with cycle indicators (MVRV, Reserve Risk, Pi Cycle) to be actionable.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/exchange-intelligence/derivatives-tdoi-overheat-index/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "derivatives-tdoi-overheat-index",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.