Basis Premium — Perp vs Spot
Premium (or discount) of perpetual futures price over spot price. A persistent positive basis reflects durable bullish demand on derivatives; negative basis suggests spot-led pressure or short squeeze setups.
What is it?
Premium Index temporal evolution — the percentage spread between BTC perpetual contract price and BTC spot price across Top 7 exchanges. Formula: premium_i,t = ((perp_price_i,t − spot_price_i,t) / spot_price_i,t) × 100, where i designates exchange and t date. A positive premium (contango) indicates the perpetual trades above spot, typically because long leverage demand is strong. A negative premium (backwardation) — rare in crypto perpetual by construction — indicates either structural short demand, or a major stress event where the perp market temporarily disconnects from spot. This raw (non-normalised) metric is complementary to TPSP Layer B composite (which adds z-score adaptive normalisation). Coinalyze source /ohlcv-history perp + /spot-markets spot, 24h Postgres cache.
How to read
Y-axis: premium as a percentage (typically between -0.3% and +0.8% in normal conditions). X-axis: daily time, 90d/1y/2y timeframes. The per-exchange lines (persistent Top 7 palette) enable simultaneously visualising cross-venue dynamics. The horizontal zero line visually separates contango (positive) from backwardation (negative). Coloured bands delimit statistical regimes: green zone for extreme contango (> +0.5%), red zone for extreme backwardation (< -0.2%). Event markers annotate notable episodes (rare 2018 bear backwardation, May 2021 paroxysm). The BTC price overlay (right Y-axis, toggleable from the toolbar) enables crossing basis with price movement.
Key zones
Observed structural regimes: normal contango +0.05% to +0.2% (equivalent ≈10-50% APR if annualised via basis trade formula) reflects moderate organic demand for long leverage. High contango +0.3% to +0.5% (~50-90% APR) moderate saturation indication. Extreme contango > +0.5% (>90% APR) rare and typically not sustainable beyond a few days without correction — historically April 2021 saw up to +0.8%. Backwardation rare in crypto perpetual (funding mechanism usually rebalances) — when observed, indicates either a major stress event (November 2022 FTX), or the end of a deep bear market where structural short demand exceeds longs. Basis trade opportunities (short perp / long spot) are historically most profitable when contango exceeds +0.5% sustained.
What to observe
Alpha patterns for Pro traders: (1) cross-exchange premium divergence > 0.2 percentage points for 7+ days — cross-venue basis arbitrage opportunity (short expensive perp / long cheap perp); (2) rare observed backwardation — major historical stress event, to analyse in parallel with BTC price movement and liquidations; (3) Top 7 unanimous contango > +0.5% for 5+ days — extreme long market saturation, historical short-term cycle top configuration (cross-reference with TPSP z-score adaptive to quantify); (4) BTC price vs premium divergence — rising price while premium declines toward zero indicates spot-driven rally (institutional via ETF) more durable than a perp-premium-driven rally; (5) sudden regime-shift from stable contango to backwardation — typical of marked capitulation moments (rare but informative).
Historical context
Notable historical episodes: April 2021 (paroxysmal contango +0.6 to +0.8% for several days before May Elon Musk correction), March 2020 COVID crash (rare backwardation -0.5% for 48h, massive arbitrage opportunity), November 2022 FTX collapse (backwardation -0.3% for several days, temporary inter-exchange dislocation), gradual post-bear normalisation (premium return to ~0.05-0.15% structural), post-spot-ETF January 2024 (moderate premium +0.1 to +0.3% structural for months, accompanied but not excessive institutional demand), post-halving mature regime (reduced amplitude vs 2021, more rarely crossing +0.5% thanks to improved arbitrage efficiency). The post-ETF pattern structurally suggests a more efficient and liquid market.
Expert notes
Raw premium is by construction correlated with funding rate (the funding mechanism rebalances perp-spot imbalances every 1h or 8h depending on exchange). However both capture slightly different aspects: funding is an active payment mechanism between traders, premium is the passive measure of instantaneous price spread. For exhaustive cross-layer Trinity reading, cross-reference with: (1) TPSP Trinity Perp-Spot Premium (Layer B z-score adaptive composite) which normalises current premium vs its 1-year baseline to qualify 'extreme for this cycle'; (2) funding rate current per-exchange (#6) for the parallel mechanism; (3) MACD Weekly BTC (Price Intelligence) for price momentum confirmation; (4) TYCC Trinity Yield Curve Composite (Macro Intelligence) for global carry-trade context. Note: this chart captures the perpetual market only (excludes CME futures, options).
Common mistakes to avoid
Common mistake: trading every contango peak as automatic contrarian indication. NO — a +0.3% contango can persist 60 days in healthy bull market (longs willingly pay for leverage during favourable trend). Always cross-reference with TPSP z-score + cycle position before action. Another trap: confusing raw premium (this metric, instantaneous spread) with funding rate (periodic 1-8h payment). Both are related but conceptually distinct. Finally, don't compare premium of a US regulated exchange (Coinbase Derivatives, CME — different!) with that of an offshore exchange — regulation and KYC/AML constraints can introduce structural biases (regulated exchanges historically have more stable and moderate premiums).
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/exchange-intelligence/derivatives-basis-premium-perp-spot/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "derivatives-basis-premium-perp-spot",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.